So much emphasis suddenly on the NOGAPS...

[Stormsfury]

So much emphasis has been placed on the NOGAPS so where does NOGAPS place Isabel ... see for yourself...

72 hours
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

84 hours
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

96 hours
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

108 hours
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

What this means folks it the ISABEL will not go out to sea and continues moving Isabel NW into Ohio and the Great Lakes....

120 hours
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

132 hours
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

And the others

UKMET
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

GFS
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

GFDL
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

12z - 12 Panel Canadian
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

Where does anything here NOT indicate between NC/VA/MD hit?

NOGAPS was initialized properly with the ridging, but 50 miles left does NOT PLACE Florida or Georgia in danger. The other models will shift slightly left on the next run with the ridge but that just makes an out to sea scenario less likely and the cone from the Carolinas (specifically North Carolina to MD) more likely.

[ameriwx2003]

SF... exactly!!!!... several discussions ago I think it was Avilia made a statement that spoke volumes.. He said there are no models that bring Isabel into Florida or words to that affect. From that discussion on there was no need to repeat that statement. Since then its been a matter of will it be the Carolinas,VA NJ etc.. and that is still the danger area any talk about a west shift relates to that area imo:):)

[chris_fit]

What this means folks it the ISABEL will not go out to sea and continues moving Isabel NW into Ohio and the Great Lakes....

OMG! it's gonna stall in Lake Michigan and regenerate into a cat2!!! Chicago get ur shutters out!


Cheers!
~Chris

[streetsoldier]

Latest TWC projections seem to indicate a possible landfall at Cape Hatteras, but affecting the Eastern Seaboard as far south as Savannah...not being a met, I'm merely watching and waiting for the updates as they progress, like most of us.

[wow]

Latest TWC projections seem to indicate a possible landfall at Cape Hatteras, but affecting the Eastern Seaboard as far south as Savannah...not being a met, I'm merely watching and waiting for the updates as they progress, like most of us.

Reminds me of how the models were projecting when Isabel was going to turn west (this was while she was tracking WNW-NW around 40-45W). Originally many were plowing her through PR and/or running over south Florida. As she passed that mark where she was 'supposed' to start west, while still moving WNW, we saw many of the models react and start pushing tracks further north. This might happen again.. this time she's tracking WNW. If she passes that mark she most models are suggesting Isabel will begin moving NNW-N, she we shall see the projected landfalls further south. The NOGAPS is hinting at some things, as well as the latest GFS. Tonight's European may spell something new tonight.

[Stormsfury]

EURO run has ... it's further east through the MID-ATLANTIC and NORTHEAST and into Hudson Bay, Canada Day 7....

SF

[azskyman]

Once again...each shift more west than north gives more credence to the Hatteras/Charleston possibility at the 72-84 hour mark.

[Lynn]

The only thing that makes me nervous for Florida is because we haven't seen a sharp NW turn yet. Also, that front or whatever exactly it is that is supposed to turn Isabel is not moving very fast from what I've heard. And the high pressure that is over Isabel. Could someone explain to me in layman's terms why this should still turn?