No chance of Florida or Georgia landfall

[Derek Ortt]

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html


Major 500mb trough in the midwest

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

Notice the digging of this trough?

There are SSW winds on the east side of this trough, that will force the hurricane to turn to the NW, then NNW, then probably north (though not until after this thing moves inland as this trough is moving slower than a snail with 4 broken legs).

The "forecasts" of a Florida landfall lack any credible science (no, NHC is not indicating a FL landfall, but an NC landfall. That is the difference in the poor initialization).

If this were to go into S Fla, I know I am looking for a new job the day after it comes. However, this is not going to happen thanks to the trough.

Thiose in Florida, kepe watching it, though do not be all that concerned as the danger is next to 0

[stormssteve]

Very BOLD statement.You never know.And the last I looked it almost moving due west.Just an observation.

[Derek Ortt]

it is moving 290. Do not focus on individual wobbles, but the long term trends

[Stormsfury]

It is a bold statement but it is one I agree with 99.99999999999999%

[jfaul]

Very BOLD statement.You never know.And the last I looked it almost moving due west.Just an observation.

its not coming to florida..never was, never will...k. hurricanes dont plow through troughs or ridges..be glad its not coming here.

[cycloneye]

Stormsfury I go more up as I agree with Dereks forecast 100%.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Hurricane Isabel continues to move off toward the WNW, as clear as day the remnants of what was Henri are collapsing and beginning to lift out. IMO this is what caused Isabel to head WNW and it started yesterday, the influence or weakness caused by the remnants is the only reason Isabel was following, ( path of lease resistance) Isabel will no longer be channeled toward that, as influence is lessening now and is being replaced by the extending Western Atlantic Ridge hence the more longer wobbles westward, and believe me there is plenty of Ridging there with a re load to boot. I expect Isabel to once again begin a strengthening faze this evening. I am not looking for a strike North of NC, the strike will be South of that beam. As promised I will try and lay out the thinking before the Official Discussion comes out. I also expect the Government of the Bahamas to issue a Hurricane Watch for the NW Islands sometime later tonight.
John

???????? really......

[JetMaxx]

Derek, you are exactly right my friend....it appears the hurricane is slowing...as models indicated before the turn; and I'm beginning to believe the turn may be sharp...just as the GFDL and GFS have progged...followed by both an acceleration in forward speed toward the NNW and intensification.

[Josephine96]

All I have to say is never say never.. Storms do some crazy things.. once it gets north of our latitude.. you can say "it's not coming to Florida".. but never say never