Not good news at all from Stewart all have to read!!!

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt3.html

He says disturbing things about the ridge that I dont like at all.

[paradoxsixnine]

:o :o :o
Um, I don't like the ridge info either...I've at least learned that much from this board....I'm in North Carolina :o

[cycloneye]

Means more west.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

does that mean I start worrying again....cy.....lol

[cycloneye]

Hummm CHV not yet but it this trend continues then your area may go a little up in probabilities but let's see a turn first to the NW.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

cy...it has gone up a little in the NHC probs. From 2 to 5 or 6....

[cycloneye]

Yes I saw them now.

[Stormsfury]

The NHC's official track has NOT been shifted much farther west.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11(which is still WNW). THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX
POSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST
TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE
00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z
UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500
MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION
OF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE
RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...(only in the short term) ISABEL
SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE
THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. (still expected to turn) ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL
INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND
THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.(just a little west)THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE
THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE
SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST
COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY
STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF
ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD. (Not likely to go out to sea)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND

Track is shifted just a little bit left ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2058W5.gif

[Lowpressure]

It is amazing how verbage can make people see or think they here something. It is great to see several posters with level heads. We sometimes wonder why the NHC makes statements later than we think they should or they use gentle language, now we see why. They say the words a little more west and the board lights up like a Christmas tree.

[chris_fit]

:o

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

:o

[HoumaLa]

What does PLETHORA mean?

[Lutrastorm]

96 hrs in my back yard... amazing how many here haven't even heard of the storm..............this is gonna be ugly. Brother and sister with horses have no evac plans as of this morning, "oh,hmmm.....uh, gotta think about it, I think I can come up with a plan.........." Will be advising "second home" clients to get here ASAP to board up and prepare for the worst.

[Anonymous]

I don't care for Stewart much but he is finally kicking on to what they have been missing. Little by little what I have been saying is coming true

[Stephanie]

96 hrs in my back yard... amazing how many here haven't even heard of the storm..............this is gonna be ugly. Brother and sister with horses have no evac plans as of this morning, "oh,hmmm.....uh, gotta think about it, I think I can come up with a plan.........." Will be advising "second home" clients to get here ASAP to board up and prepare for the worst.

You be careful down there in Bethany. I go to Rehobeth annually for my Christmas shopping and to Ocean City,MD at least once for Seacrets. There's nothing there but a thin strip of sand that runs between the ocean and the bay. It's a beautiful area...

[Guest]

Hey Lutrastorm!.................Im probably headed that way myself (Family) and maybe a chase.................Im from the Rehoboth Beach area before i moved here to OH last year.......................Your statement doesnt suprise me at all about people there not knowing about this cane because my own mother herself told me the exact same thing......................I have a very bad feeling the area is about to get taught a very very bad lesson which i have said for years when i lived there.....................I really hope those in the area are getting ready for this and its brought to more peoples attention rather quickly......................OC, South Bethany, Dewey are all in big trouble with having the ocean on one side and the bay on the other if she landfalls on the Delmarva....................This doesnt even account for rt1 up towards the Indian River Inlet which more or less will probably be gone...................Good luck.

[Colin]

Man...I'd get smashed, and most likely will if that track would occur..

[earlybirdnj]

plethora=a very large amount or quantity