Whenever a storm threatens the US, we in the rescue field nervously watch it, hoping to not be needed. Wherever she lands, lettts hope my brothers and sisters aren't too busy!
It will be interesting to see who on this board is correct. I would rather have a person tell me why he thinks the storm is or is not coming, rather than just saying "the computer model says..." When I balked at learning math as a child, I told my father that I didnt need to learn, I could use a calculator. He explained to me that a calculator only does the "menial" part of the calculation, it is the operator and the information he puts into the calc that solves the problem. Wrong equation=wrong answer. GIGO.
Anyway, no matter where she goes, we will be standing by ...
Nervous and watching
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Stephanie
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Re: Nervous and watching
sharpenu wrote:Whenever a storm threatens the US, we in the rescue field nervously watch it, hoping to not be needed. Wherever she lands, lettts hope my brothers and sisters aren't too busy!
It will be interesting to see who on this board is correct. I would rather have a person tell me why he thinks the storm is or is not coming, rather than just saying "the computer model says..." When I balked at learning math as a child, I told my father that I didnt need to learn, I could use a calculator. He explained to me that a calculator only does the "menial" part of the calculation, it is the operator and the information he puts into the calc that solves the problem. Wrong equation=wrong answer. GIGO.
Anyway, no matter where she goes, we will be standing by ...
Thanks for your anticipated help - where ever that may be!!!
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JetMaxx
This isn't rocket science folks....the reason hurricane Isabel has NO CHANCE of striking Florida or Georgia is basic meteorology...something I learned many years ago..
Isabel is moving slowly WNW under a ridge....but there is a strong and deep early autumn trough coming across the western U.S...
What are the global models reacting too..and have for several days now? The trough...why the GFS and ECMWF have run after run forecast a slowing of the forward speed north of Hispanola in response to the first shortwave....then a sharp turn to the NNW and acceleration toward the east coast.
It's really unfortunate there is blocking high pressure offshore Nova Scotia....in this situation with such a deep and well pronounced trough digging southward, normally the hurricane would simply recurve to the north then NE and race off into the North Atlantic shipping lanes to die (as Gladys did in 1975).
Instead tonight we are facing a similar situation to what occurred in September 1938, September 1944, and October 1954....a large and dangerous hurricane that will race up the east coast with devastating results....funneled between high pressure to the east and an approaching deep trough from the west.
It hasn't happened in this manner since hurricane Hazel...at least when there was a powerful hurricane at the right time and place to take advantage....and probably won't happen again in many of our lives.
Why won't Isabel strike your area of central Florida? The answer is as simple as meteorology 101 friend....hurricanes always accelerate north ahead of a strong trough.
Isabel is moving slowly WNW under a ridge....but there is a strong and deep early autumn trough coming across the western U.S...
What are the global models reacting too..and have for several days now? The trough...why the GFS and ECMWF have run after run forecast a slowing of the forward speed north of Hispanola in response to the first shortwave....then a sharp turn to the NNW and acceleration toward the east coast.
It's really unfortunate there is blocking high pressure offshore Nova Scotia....in this situation with such a deep and well pronounced trough digging southward, normally the hurricane would simply recurve to the north then NE and race off into the North Atlantic shipping lanes to die (as Gladys did in 1975).
Instead tonight we are facing a similar situation to what occurred in September 1938, September 1944, and October 1954....a large and dangerous hurricane that will race up the east coast with devastating results....funneled between high pressure to the east and an approaching deep trough from the west.
It hasn't happened in this manner since hurricane Hazel...at least when there was a powerful hurricane at the right time and place to take advantage....and probably won't happen again in many of our lives.
Why won't Isabel strike your area of central Florida? The answer is as simple as meteorology 101 friend....hurricanes always accelerate north ahead of a strong trough.
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