Hurricane Isabel / but no magic bus

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John
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Hurricane Isabel / but no magic bus

#1 Postby John » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:06 pm

Hurricane Isabel continues to move off toward the WNW, as clear as day the remnants of what was Henri are collapsing and beginning to lift out. IMO this is what caused Isabel to head WNW and it started yesterday, the influence or weakness caused by the remnants is the only reason Isabel was following, ( path of lease resistance) Isabel will no longer be channeled toward that, as influence is lessening now and is being replaced by the extending Western Atlantic Ridge hence the more longer wobbles westward, and believe me there is plenty of Ridging there with a re load to boot. I expect Isabel to once again begin a strengthening faze this evening. I am not looking for a strike North of NC, the strike will be South of that beam. As promised I will try and lay out the thinking before the Official Discussion comes out. I also expect the Government of the Bahamas to issue a Hurricane Watch for the NW Islands sometime later tonight.
John
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chris_fit
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#2 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:09 pm

Intereseting :o

Cheers!
~Chris
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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#3 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:10 pm

Thanks John! Very interesting!
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dixiebreeze
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#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:12 pm

John, a watch for the NW Bahamas seems to certainly imply a more westerly track. I'm certainly a minority on the board, but I'm sticking with Cape Canaveral to Charleston at this point. If not an actual Florida landfill, at least a nudge.
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#5 Postby stormssteve » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:38 pm

What you say completely makes sense.Fl never say never,I know I wont.Thanks JOHN.
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Deenac813
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#6 Postby Deenac813 » Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:39 pm

stormssteve wrote:What you say completely makes sense.Fl never say never,I know I wont.Thanks JOHN.


I wont say never but how about almost never? :lol: I am kidding of course.. as I have been saying that I will keep an eye on her at least until she passes north of me.. then I will breathe a deep sigh of relief & still watch her as she plays out.
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Josephine96

#7 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 14, 2003 8:08 pm

Good Post John... it makes perfect sense.. and the Bahamas should have watches anyway.. this thing is dangerously close to them...
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beenthru6
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#8 Postby beenthru6 » Sun Sep 14, 2003 8:13 pm

Very interesting, but scary! What is your theory on why the NHC or the TPC aren't seeing this? Why aren't the models recognizing the more powerful ridging? Thanks!
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ColdFront77

#9 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:55 pm

I'm sure the National Hurricane Center recognizes the ridge in the Atlantic. Of course they are watching satellite loops and other date that indicates the goings not only in the Atlantic, but north and west of the storm.

Also, they have mentioned the ridge in their Tropical Weather Discussions and see at this time that Isabel will make a more northerly turn.
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