Ridge will continue to build West: NHC 8 p.m. Discussion....
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dixiebreeze
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mf_dolphin
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Isabel should get squeezed in between the two forcing her NW and then more northerly...-
dixiebreeze
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mf_dolphin
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Josephine96
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mf_dolphin
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wxman57
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Here's what is important:
<i>The upper low
currently over the se United States is beginning to lift nwd and
this is expected to continue allowing mid/upper level ridging
currently over Isabel to build westward over the W atlc. This
should maintain a favorable environment for the hurricane.
However...the weakness created by the departing upper low
coupled with another shortwave moving over the N central United
States will allow for an increasingly poleward motion during the
next few days.</i>
In other words, everything is coming together just as forecast, this is not a surprise. The ridge cannot build past the approaching east coast trof, therfore Isabel will be steered northward as forecast. The only question is just how far west it gets before the turn.
<i>The upper low
currently over the se United States is beginning to lift nwd and
this is expected to continue allowing mid/upper level ridging
currently over Isabel to build westward over the W atlc. This
should maintain a favorable environment for the hurricane.
However...the weakness created by the departing upper low
coupled with another shortwave moving over the N central United
States will allow for an increasingly poleward motion during the
next few days.</i>
In other words, everything is coming together just as forecast, this is not a surprise. The ridge cannot build past the approaching east coast trof, therfore Isabel will be steered northward as forecast. The only question is just how far west it gets before the turn.
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dixiebreeze
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ColdFront77
dixiebreeze wrote:Dolphin. that's the conventional thinking at the NHC. There sure are a lots of "should" and "coulds" and "ifs" with Isabel :?
There are a lot of "should" and "coulds" and "ifs" with most tropical cyclones, especially moderate to intense ones.
wxman57 wrote:In other words, everything is coming together just as forecast, this is not a surprise. The ridge cannot build past the approaching east coast trof, therfore Isabel will be steered northward as forecast. The only question is just how far west it gets before the turn.
Then why are some forecasters saying that there is still a chance of the ridge to build westward in such a way that Isabel may move further west?
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