Vortex Data Message 15/0642Z

southerngale · #1 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:18 am

990
URNT12 KNHC 150642
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/0642Z
B. 24 DEG 31 MIN N
68 DEG 55 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2552 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 318 DEG 99 KT
G. 230 DEG 33 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 11 C/ 3047 M
J. 16 C/ 3035 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF985 1013A ISABEL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 99 KT SW QUAD 0632Z.

WeatherNLU · #2 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:21 am

24.5 and 68.9?

Correct me if I am wrong, but is that not due west from the 11PM?

Secondly, we have a much weaker system on our hands, it seems. Now they might not have found the peak winds yet, but 99 was all they have found so far. Might be weaking????

southerngale · #3 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:22 am

Yep....due west

WeatherNLU · #4 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:00 am

Something is not right. They are obviously in the SW part of the storm, and are reporting a position that seems to me to be just inside the SW'ern most part of the eye. The dead center to me looks to be at 24.8, 69.0.

southerngale · #5 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:05 am

The sw quad, where they found the 99 knots, is the weakest quad if I'm not mistaken.

john186292 · #6 Postby **john186292** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:22 am

OK gang, lots hanging on this. Is it a jog to west, or new trend? and will any such foul trend still be just wiped out by ye healthy cold front going to FLA from new orleans?
I notice the NHC has lots of slipups ..posting right now the sun morning positon at top of NHC home page, while the link buttons take us to the correct 11pm locations.
Any comments on the health of the crucial front now heading to FLA from LA? How far north of Izzy can the front pass, going east, and still turn izzy away from FLA and GOM? Local met map seemed to show...so briefly on screen, cant say for sure....that the crucial front on tuesday was lifted up to northern jacksonville fla. lattitude. That seems disconnected from the Izzy area. Will the front pass on its east march, too far north to turn izzy? Sure hope not. Will it trigger a chain of air movement south of it, that WILL turn Izzy?
John in new orleans

southerngale · #7 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:32 am

I can't answer all of your questions...hopefully someone who can will. But we said west based on the coordinates in the vortex data message. BUT looking at satellite, Isabel is not moving due west but wnw. Actually, looks more like just north of west to me.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 5:31 am

I think maybe it was a temporary wobble to due west looks like its wnw again to me. Well NHC said it should start to turn in 12-24 hours so we shall see.

Vortex Data Message 15/0642Z

Vortex Data Message 15/0642Z

JOG OR TREND TO WEST?

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