5 AM ADVISORY
The 5 AM EDT advisory from the tropical prediction center on Hurricane Isabel. At 5 AM EDT, the center of dangerous Hurricane Isabel was located about 525 miles east of Nassau in the Bahamas or about 820 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The coordines are latitude 24.8 north, longitude 69.0 west.
Movement is west northwest at 10 mph and a gradual turn towards the northwest is expected in the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased only slightly to 150 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabela very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and such as will be the case for the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward 115 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. A very large hurricane indeed with a large wind field.
Minimum central pressure is 940 mb or 27.76 inches.
HISTORICAL HURRICANE STRIKES
Alittle pop quiz to start off. When was the last time New Jersey saw a landfalling hurricane??? September 16th, 1903 was the date and we're approaching the 100th anniversary of the landfall in New Jersey. Just gives you an idea how rare hurricanes make landfall in New Jersey.
Some more historical moments include the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane. This storm made landfall near the Virginia Capes and move up west of the Chesapeake Bay. However Hurricane Force winds occurred all the way to New Jersey sweeping fishing piers away along the southern NJ coast and cut the inlet, which now forms the southern tip of the Ocean City inlet!!! Storm surge of 5-6 feet pushed up the Delaware Bay into Philadelphia and Wilmington back in 1933. This is just some of the hints Isabel could have in these same areas late Wednesday into Thursday, potentially on a slightly more intense level, especially for Norfolk and Virginia Beach points south. Areas north of there also need to monitor the situation very closely from the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays up into southern New England. Isabel could potentially be as bad if not worse than the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane.
ADVICE AND PREPARATION PROCEDURES
Since Isabel will threaten and likely make landfall later this week along the eastern seaboard, preparation and possible evacuations may become neccessary. While Isabel is 3 days away from approaching the Mid Atlantic coast, now is a good time to review your disaster plans and be ready to implement that plan as neccessary. Check your insurance to make sure you have the adequate coverage needed in case your home or business is damaged or destroyed by winds or water. Have flashlights and battery powered appliances on hand such as a battery powered radio or a battery powered NOAA WX radio to keep updated on the progress of Isabel just in case electricity is lost to your home or business. Keep a supply of non perishable foods and beverages that can last for several days time. Also keep cooking tools and a can opener handy. Keep extra hygiene items on hand. If you're on medication, have extra prescriptions available.
If you live in a coastal area, decide right now where you will go in the event you are ordered to evacuate. If you plan to go to a shelter, you will have to make other arrangements for your pets. Storm shelters usually do not accept animals. Know your best evacuation route before the storm strikes. The sooner these preparations are done, the better!!!
Based on the current forecast track, all hazards are expected with this hurricane at landfall along the NC-VA coast including very dangerous storm surge of 10-15 feet and waves of 30-40 feet off the Mid Atlantic coast, damaging winds of 100-140 mph with higher gusts, and flooding rains of 5-10 inches expected. Certainly the potential of extensive damage is there from NC up to VA and MD. Beyond that, Isabel while weaker could still have a significant impact from northern Maryland into Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania and preparations to protect your life and property should begin in all these areas. Have a plan of action in place as though this is the worse case scenario and implement that plan as conditions warrant.
Further updates will be given on evacs as well as watches and warnings as we get them. In the meantime, preparation is key!!!
Jim
5 AM UPDATE, ADVICE, HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES
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