Still waiting for the turn...

mf_dolphin · #21 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:47 am

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

This give a pretty good view of the "big picture". Looks like the second trough is on the way as forecast and Isabel is under some fairly weak steering right now. As the trough gets close she should acclerate her NW - NNW track.

chadtm80 · #22 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 am

Ya, Marshall that is one of my favorite shots.. Realy gives you a good look at what is happening.. Steering currents etc

john186292 · #23 Postby **john186292** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 am

Air Force Met wrote:IS that my question John?

john186292 · #24 Postby **john186292** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:50 am

sure, love to hear your thoughts on causation.

tpr1967 · #25 Postby **tpr1967** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:54 am

I enjoy your posts air force met. keep up the good work. You see the data
and tell it like is. No -removed- thats what i like.

Tom

#26 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:01 am

It's not the front that turns the hurricane...that's misinformation. Most people think that because they hear their $50 haircut $5 brain local mets (who most are not actually mets but broadcast people with no met degrees) say that. A front will turn a TD or TS...you get into the big boys and girls and you have to deal with upper flow. Izzy will be steered by upper flow.

What will happen is the high that is off to her NE will shift from its current position and become less circular. It will become N-S orientated. This will cause the flow on the east side of Izzy to become S to N in advance of the approaching upper trough. As far tha the fronts concerned...she could care less that that feature is even there except if she pulls in some of the cool dry air and it weakens her which is not likely. That feaure is not the cause of her turn. The trough associated with the front will weaken the ridge...and cause it to shift from being round to looking like a pole. She will following the flow around it.

Here are some links to show you what I am talking about. NOtice how the ridge goes from being a bubble to a N-S pole and Izzy (as do all tropical cyclones and..believe it or not...all lows...tropical or not) will follow that flow on teh east side which is her steering flow:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_006m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

JetMaxx · #27 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:05 am

Hey Nelson...that's how I learned...not model interpretation or "hugging" as some call it, but instead "weather forecasting 101"...old school.

No, I'm not a professional meteorologist...but I think like one, and I forecast like one. Some clueless boob actually had the nerve to p.m. me and say "WELL, THE OTHER DAY YOU FORECAST LANDFALL AT PALM BEACH, FLORIDA" :grrr:

Number one...I NEVER forecast landfall at PBI.
I forecasted Isabel to be at 25.5N and 77.5W in 7 days. At that range, I KNEW there was a huge margin for error....but at the time I made the forecast, there was some model guidance backing me up (the ECMWF and LBAR).

When the guidance indicated a turn, I re-evaluated my analysis and forecast landfall in the Georgia to South Carolina area....choosing the left side of the model envelope, believeing a large hurricane as intense as Isabel would make a gradual turn...not as sharp as progged; but again, I forecast landfall in the 6 day period; and clearly told everyone it was SUBJECT TO CHANGE pending later model data and synoptic analysis.

One it became apparent the models had a good handle on the digging trough, I posted my forecast of landfall in the Morehead City to Hatteras area -- with Ocracoke in the crosshairs...and I still feel the same three days later.

I keep seeing things posted about this hurricane being unusually difficult to forecast...when in reality, nothing could be farther from the truth. Isabel has been well behaved with a pretty reliable steering current in the 72 hr forecast period since she was east of 50W (and not too far off base in the 96 and 120 hour range). Isabel has passed within 150 miles of most of the 120 hour positions....why I knew yesterday there was no way on earth Isabel would strike Georgia or miss the U.S. East Coast.

I was honestly shocked to see some still forecasting a Florida landfall yesterday....when it was crystal clear there was no way it would happen. Forecasting a hurricane toward Florida at day-7 with some model guidance supporting you is an analysis....doing the same at 3-4 days out with NO model guidance progging the hurricane anywhere near Florida makes you look like a loon (or the world's worst wishcaster).

john186292 · #28 Postby **john186292** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:11 am

so, the trough affects the hi up NE of izzy. then that HI acts as a transmission linkage. It's surrounding airflow is what reaches down five degrees and touches Izzy. Is it the ol Bermuda Hi?
A pox on the certificated , fake tv mets and the tv companies that do not give the public real mets.

#29 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:14 am

I know...I don't get it. There were posts talking about why hasn't it make the predicted turn? It wasn't predicted to turn yet. This has been one of the most behnaved storms I can ever remember. To have ALL the model gudiance in agreement this far out?

Oh...and BTW...another coup for the ECMWF. IT was the first to come on board.

Also...I still have my rules of thumbs for progging systems from school. We ahve to plot the maps..analyze them...identify the systems and the prog them out to 72 hours. Them we got slammed by the "shark" as he went over our mistakes. A most painful experience. I still have pit marks in my rear and I was one of the lucky ones.

john186292 · #30 Postby **john186292** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:16 am

PS the fake mets are parallel to the hospitals upping profits by replacing RN nurses with lo pay LPN ones, and dressing up LPN's to look like RN's. what patient can tell the diff then? None. result..poor patient care. Fake mets on tv...result...danger to the public. In both cases, lives lost...and who fingers the real cause? Very few.

#31 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:20 am

John...yep. Most TV "METS" are not real mets. If you take a broadcast met course...you can get the AMS seal of approval.

I've been a weather weenie since Allen in 1980 when I was 11. I did an intership in high school with Dr. Steve Harned in Alvin Tx. in 1986. Craig Webber...a real met on Channel 11 sent me some weather maps back then and I took them to Channel 2 to Kathy Turner who were really cute and I was 16....anyway...she did the weather there and I wanted her to go over these maps with me. I showed her the 500mb vorticity chart and she had no CLUE what it was...yes she had an AMS seal.

I was 16 and knew that being a TV met didn't mean you knew anything about the weather. Now you know

You really have to know their credintials and who they are. They may be degreed and know their stuff...we have Neil Frank on 11. They may not know Jack.

GalvestonDuck · #32 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:22 am

Air Force Met wrote:This has been one of the most behnaved storms I can ever remember.

*snickering* @ Nelson! Behaved??? Does that mean if we think she's being bad, we can punish her and send her to her ocean?

Great explanation above, by the way. I was one of those ones who thought (but couldn't understand how) the front would turn her. I didn't think it was stronger than her and able to do that, but I was hearing that from some and thought it was a possibility. Thanks for the links also!

ColdFront77 · #33 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:13 pm

I keep hearing that the trough is weak and weakening and the next trough is supposed to pick up Isabel. How can the ridge weaken with this upcoming trough weakening?

The words trough and cold front are used interchangeable. When we see tropical cyclones moving toward frontal systems we see them move northward parallel to them, so the way to word it is... the front is turning and moving the tropical system.

I have seen several meteorologists on local television (here in central Florida and in eastern Massachusetts) with the AMS Seal of Approval.

#34 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:25 pm

First...the trough I speak of is upper level...not the cold front. And really...what is driving this boat is what is happening to the ridge more than the trough. The trough is just eroding the ridge enough to keep izzy from going wnw....but the whole ridge is shifting. Instead of laying down e-w...it is standing up n-s. BY 2 days...the trough is linking up with izzy.

IN reality...the front is not moving the tropical system...it may appear that way...but meteorologically that is not what is happening since a hurricane is not being steered by surface features and a cold front drawn on a weather map is a surface feature. A storm such as izzy is now is steered at a level above 18,000 feet above the surface. All fronts are trofs...but not all trofs are fronts...so to say that is not sound. When dealing with a hurricane...a surface trough is not going to steer it. Again...hurricanes are steered by mid and upper elvel features alone...not surface ones. The reason you see it that way on the weather map is because when you have a cold front approaching...and you have a hurricane turning...you have a strong midlevel trof diggin in behind the cold front lower the mid-level heights...knocking down the ridge ahead of it and causing it to break down. This causes the hurricane to recurve. Classic rebuttle would be what happens in the GOM when storms approach cold fronts and you don't have the steering and the wrap the fronts up inside themselves. The fronts don't steer them away...because storms aren't steered at that level.

Rainband · #35 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:38 pm

Air Force Met wrote:First...the trough I speak of is upper level...not the cold front. And really...what is driving this boat is what is happening to the ridge more than the trough. The trough is just eroding the ridge enough to keep izzy from going wnw....but the whole ridge is shifting. Instead of laying down e-w...it is standing up n-s. BY 2 days...the trough is linking up with izzy.

IN reality...the front is not moving the tropical system...it may appear that way...but meteorologically that is not what is happening since a hurricane is not being steered by surface features and a cold front drawn on a weather map is a surface feature. A storm such as izzy is now is steered at a level above 18,000 feet above the surface. All fronts are trofs...but not all trofs are fronts...so to say that is not sound. When dealing with a hurricane...a surface trough is not going to steer it. Again...hurricanes are steered by mid and upper elvel features alone...not surface ones. The reason you see it that way on the weather map is because when you have a cold front approaching...and you have a hurricane turning...you have a strong midlevel trof diggin in behind the cold front lower the mid-level heights...knocking down the ridge ahead of it and causing it to break down. This causes the hurricane to recurve. Classic rebuttle would be what happens in the GOM when storms approach cold fronts and you don't have the steering and the wrap the fronts up inside themselves. The fronts don't steer them away...because storms aren't steered at that level.

Bravo.. I am gonna really know whats going on.. when the next system evolves..thanks :wink:

#36 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:47 pm

...and don't let that AMS seal from the TV mets fool you

chadtm80 · #37 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:51 pm

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html

#38 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:59 pm

The GOM is looking rough! As for Isabel, the last frame looks like she is going west??

Still waiting for the turn...

air force...sure, love to hear your thoughts N/T

a train of events as i thought

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