Isabels Future Track update's! (Model trends & Sats)

[Guest]

Well to start with my opinion hasnt changed at all as to where Isabel will go.................I am begining to zero in on a landfall point though which now extends from the DE coast south to NC coast...............And again i will say that this by no means says to let your guards down further south and north because untill it passes you you are not out of the woods!...............................As some may already know i have picked a double hit which includes Cape Hattaras and then again Chincoteague, VA and then nnw from there........................One big question asked is how far of a left hook will she make once she landfalls................With this i am leaning towards what DT (WxRisk) has to say which imo he explains very well and makes sence of it all........................More or less i dont know of any systems crashing through a ridge which is expected to develop in the NE and out into the Atlantic which will keep Isabel from moving in any kind of easterly fashion and more or less shove her off towards the nnw or nw!....................See my Sat discussion about this............More or less impossible for a storm to go through a ridge!........................

Models...............Tonights 00z runs are a split BUT closer with one group showing landfall up the Delaware Bay and or Cape May, NJ....................And then the other models you have them going into the VA/NC coast with the GFS in the middle right where i have picked for a landfall near the MD/VA coast on the VA side..................

Sats.................Looking and following the Water vapor loops today and again tonight you can clearly see all the pieces comming together for Isables future track with the pathway opening up thanks to the trough moving through the plains towards the Lakes turning the winds around towards the sw out ahead of it in the Ohio Valley South to the FL Panhandle...................This btw will be a big part of the northward move of Isabel towards the NW at some point on Monday if not already then a NNW turn and then with a added feature racing in from the nw along with a ULL which is clearly seen on the water vapor will give her that pull back towards a nw or nnw movement at or right after landfall along with the aid of the ridge building in to her North and northeast....................Looking to the east and north of Isabel you can see the uppers starting to bend as well around her which will help guide her towards the Nw and eventually NNW to landfall..........................As i have said time and time again tthe Water Vapor does not lie and shows how everything is revolving clearly.....................

Strength.......................Right now im riding the fench with either a cat 3 landfall if she is slower.................Or perhaps as high as a cat4 with a faster speed and a hit south of the MD/DE coast line................Either way i see a major Hurricane making landfall along the Mid Atlantic Coastline and with what i have been reading tonight she is gonna take a little bit longer to wind down as she crosses the cooler waters and then land because of the type of Hurricane she is (annular hurricane) which means areas away from the coast will be dealing with quite a punch as well!

Now is a good time to have your hurricane plans ready to go into affect with doing such things as gassing the cars and removing loose objects from your yards. Then make sure you have plenty of drinking water and canned goods with a good working flash light and a battery powered radio on hand.................And should be deciding and making plans on where to go!...................

[Guest]

Ok........................So far today i have seen nothing to change my mind as to where Isabel will go.......................Infact my landfall of Hattaras/VA is looking better by the minute.......................The Next model runs should be intresting to say the least as they should have a even better handle on where Isabel will go and it only gets better from here on out as to the determing of final destination point of Isabel..........................Only slight concern right now is Intensity which i do know that she will be a Major hurricane when she makes landfall! But as to beeing a weak 3 or possible 4 im not sure about yet as she has now begun to transfer over to what most consider a normall Hurricane instead of a (annular hurricane) which she has been the last several days and as well explains the large eye that she had.............For more info on this see Air Force Mets discussion about a annular Hurricane!

Next update comes after the model runs!