Isabel news, update, and forecasts

[WXBUFFJIM]

news on Isabel

Good afternoon everyone. The preparation is well underway for dangerous hurricane Isabel. Residents boarded up homes along the mid atlantic coast and mandatory evacuations were even ordered. More on that in a second. Meanwhile the governor of Virginia Mark R Warner has issued a state of emergency for the state of Virginia as Hurricane Isabel approaches the eastern seaboard. This means the national guard, state police, and the dept of transportation will be on full alert status. All residents from the Carolinas northward are in the potential path of Isabel.

evacuation orders

A mandatory evacuation was ordered for Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Ocracoke Island has 921 residents and everyone of those residents were ordered to leave. Mandatory evacuations were also given up the coast at the Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Hampton, Virginia as a safety precuation. The hospital is near water and flooding would be a huge concern there, especially if Isabel makes a major direct impact on the Hampton Roads area on Thursday. In addition there is talk of taking the NAVY ship fleets out of Norfolk, Virginia and take them out to sea to ride out the hurricane. Even folks further up the coast in Ocean City, Maryland are preparing for Hurricane Isabel and a possible evacuation maybe given in Ocean City, Maryland on Tuesday according to news sources. That would seriously hamper sunfest weekend for Ocean City, which was scheduled for September 18-23, 2003. No word on whether or not that will be held given the high level threat from Isabel.

Hurricane watches and warnings

No hurricane watches or warnings are in effect along the eastern seaboard. However a hurricane watch maybe neccessary by Tuesday for the mid atlantic coast. A hurricane watch means that the hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. A hurricane warning is issued when hurricane conditions are expected in 24 hours or less. All interests along the Carolina, Virginia coast northward through southern New England including inland areas such as the Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay need to closely monitor this potentially dangerous situation.

Timing of landfall and intensity

Landfall is anticipated to occur Thursday afternoon along the North Carolina coast near Capew Hatteras. Isabel could have maximum sustained winds of 120-130 mph at landfall. The center of Isabel will likely impact the Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads area by 6-8 PM Thursday with max sustained winds in the 110-125 mph range with higher gusts. The center of Isabel is expected to accelerate towards the north northwest after landfall and impact a wide area from DC and Baltimore up to Harrisburg and Philadelphia. Storm surge flooding of 4-6 feet, max sustained winds of 80 mph with higher gusts, heavy rains, and isolatyed tornadoes are likely Thursday night for these inland areas along both the Chesapeake, Delaware Bays, and the tidal Potomac River. A significant impact and a potentially dangerous situation.

5 PM ADVISORY ON ISABEL

At 5 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 25.6 north, longitude 70.0 west, or about 740 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This position is also about 470 miles east of Nassau in the Bahamas.

Iasbel is moving toward the northwest at near 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and these could occur over the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outwartd up to 205 miles. Still a large wind field in this.

Estimated minimum central pressure is up to 949 millibars or 28.02 inches. Large ocean swells are already beginning to affect the US Mid Atlantic coastline and it will only worsen from there over the next few days. Large ocean swells continues for the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Lesser Antillies for the next few days.

More updates later.

Jim