WTNT23 KNHC 160220
TCMAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
0300Z TUE SEP 16 2003
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISABEL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 70.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
50 KT.......125NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 300SE 200SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 70.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 70.0W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.9N 70.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.4N 71.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.2N 77.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 44.5N 79.5W...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 54.0N 78.5W...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 70.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
11:00 PM----down to 105 Knots
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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11:00 PM----down to 105 Knots
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