Models pointing more west..another help question

wayoutfront · #1 Postby **wayoutfront** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:32 pm

http://wrel.com/modelmap.htm

I am confused as well
I agree you guys are great, so would one you tell me why the discussions keep saying she going farther to the North but the models seem to sliding west each run.

wow · #2 Postby **wow** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:40 pm

whoaa...

whoa mercy mercy me...

jaysonx · #3 Postby **jaysonx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:42 pm

:o

Look at the UKMET, this is the track that I have suspected all along...

jj · #4 Postby jj » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:45 pm

How will the Appalachian mountains affect the progress of the storm once it moves inland?

JQ Public · #5 Postby **JQ Public** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:47 pm

they will squeeze out every single drop of rain they can.

wayoutfront · #6 Postby **wayoutfront** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:49 pm

are the models missing something? ....that mets are seeing or vice-versa?

I suppose that is the question i really wanted to post

wow · #7 Postby **wow** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:53 pm

i suspect the models are now realizing more and more the strength of the ridge, and giving a shift south and west. G. Gray and even the NHC has talked about this.

jaysonx · #8 Postby **jaysonx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:53 pm

the most interesting thing is that these models are now fanning out left and right like we were 120hours our or something...

there is no specific trend anymore (aside from a mid atlantic hit, which we have known all along.

my guess is this stall has really thrown a wrench into the system.

wow · #9 Postby **wow** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:56 pm

jaysonx wrote:
my guess is this stall has really thrown a wrench into the system.

stall? since when did she stall? she's moving, albeit slowly

Ababa · #10 Postby **Ababa** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:03 pm

The models can all see the ridge now....this baby will make landfall in nc...typical east coast hurricane.

wow · #11 Postby **wow** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:05 pm

Ababa wrote:The models can all see the ridge now....this baby will make landfall in nc...typical east coast hurricane.

the question is: where in NC will it make landfall? hmm?

wow · #12 Postby **wow** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:11 pm

00z ETA is also a bit further west

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072m.gif

compared to last run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_084m.gif

Ababa · #13 Postby **Ababa** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:14 pm

wow wrote:
Ababa wrote:The models can all see the ridge now....this baby will make landfall in nc...typical east coast hurricane.

the question is: where in NC will it make landfall? hmm?

That would be the question of the hour

I dunno but if she keeps getting sheared apart the impact will be a lot more benevolent, at least wind damage wise, than the gloom and doom predicted a short 36 hours ago by HPC (no weakening before landfall)

Scott_inVA · #14 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:26 pm

jj wrote:How will the Appalachian mountains affect the progress of the storm once it moves inland?

Depends on track. The Blue Ridge come first. During Floyd (totally different path) much of the west rain stacked up on the Blue Ridge (talk about lift). Fran's path was such that alot of RA and wind came from the NE and North...down the Valley and eastern slopes of the mountains.

Based on track, more rain east of the BR...gale winds shouldn't mix down west of the mountains...at least until winds shift out of the north.

The BR and Apps don't kill every TC.

Scott

john186292 · #15 Postby **john186292** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 12:25 am

anyone got a site with the very latest on the major models, in the form of tracks on just one map?

wayoutfront · #16 Postby **wayoutfront** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 7:02 am

This is the only one i know of

http://wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Models pointing more west..another help question

Models pointing more west..another help question

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