Isabel wont be a major hurricane at landfall

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 7:12 am

The sattellite presentation this morning shows like Isabel is having a tough time sustaining her power and 2 factors are doing the job to weaken her dry air and shear.She is tenasious and is trying very hard to regroup but I think that her best days are over and from now on she will continue to weaken steadly and we may see here making landfall as a cat 2 or even a cat 1 if shear continues to blow her apart.But she will speed up and for that reason it will be a dangerous cane even if she makes landfall below cat 3.The comming hours will be very important to see if Isabel can survive the serious attacks from 2 flanks DRY AIR AND SHEAR or she can survive,try to regroup and at least mantain her own.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 7:19 am

GREAT NEWS

#3 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 7:27 am

NOpe...there are some decent westerlies about to dig into her and she has 2 more days of abuse to be subjected to.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 7:29 am

Even rainband if she travels thru the gulfstream waters that are warmer because of the weaken proccess that she has been subjected to will be difficult to regain major cane status but this is my take and others may have a different prospective about this and I respect the difference in opinions.I hope that I am right and this comes thru to spare the east coast of a major disaster.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 7:57 am

Yes you said it good AFM.

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 8:08 am

I think is way off and I do NOT agree at all.. New satellite pictures from TPC IR Loop show clouds wrapping in to the NW quadrant that was sheared..

cycloneye wrote:The sattellite presentation this morning shows like Isabel is having a tough time sustaining her power and 2 factors are doing the job to weaken her dry air and shear.She is tenasious and is trying very hard to regroup but I think that her best days are over and from now on she will continue to weaken steadly and we may see here making landfall as a cat 2 or even a cat 1 if shear continues to blow her apart.But she will speed up and for that reason it will be a dangerous cane even if she makes landfall below cat 3.The comming hours will be very important to see if Isabel can survive the serious attacks from 2 flanks DRY AIR AND SHEAR or she can survive,try to regroup and at least mantain her own.

#7 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 8:15 am

I wouldn't be so sure about this weakening trend continuing. I am with you DT she is starting to wrap around the western side and giving the inner core some protection. She has shown great ability to hold on to status. She may weaken more in the 11:00 advisory, but she is looking better every frame and will probably regroup a bit before landfall. Water is very warm until the shelf and shear appears to be having less effect. We will see.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 8:18 am

Boy have I been looking for you guys since the WWBB went down yesterday afternoon ! Without him, I have to rely on Joe Bastardi ! (or the AccuWeather pro site)

My least but last option would be the dreaded weather.com board.

So does it look like Cape Hatteras ? Last I saw from models it was going to hit just west of there, perhaps near Moorehead City ??

Ken

SacrydDreamz · #9 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 8:19 am

DT wrote:I think is way off and I do NOT agree at all.. New satellite pictures from TPC IR Loop show clouds wrapping in to the NW quadrant that was sheared..

Agreed. It appears that the shear is more to the south of Isabel than yesterday. Still not good for Isabel but not as bad. Center seems to be organizing a little better under an infant CDO..

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 8:22 am

As I said she will make landfall as a strong cat 2 but depends that the shear leds up and the dry air fades away.

AussieMark · #11 Postby **AussieMark** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 9:58 am

What is the difference between a Strong 2 and weak 3 as far as damage potential - is it basically the same?

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:35 am

Major cane covers a more area of extensive damage but as I said if it not regroups soon maybe even a cat 1 at landfall which would be far better from a landfalling cat 3-4.

wayoutfront · #13 Postby **wayoutfront** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:44 am

was it the speed of the track, that made Agnes a (Cat1) the 8th costliest huricane in history?

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:48 am

wayoutfront wrote:was it the speed of the track, that made Agnes a (Cat1) the 8th costliest huricane in history?

Agnes was a CAT 1 at landfall ... but when it stalled over Pennsylvania and dumped copious amounts of rainfall and produced tremendous flooding.

Go here for details
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/marfc/Flood/agnes.html

Isabel wont be a major hurricane at landfall

Isabel wont be a major hurricane at landfall

Re: Isabel wont be a major hurricane at landfall

is this wxrisk ??

Re: Isabel wont be a major hurricane at landfall

Agnes was a Cat 1

Re: Agnes was a Cat 1

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