Cosgrove says Izzy could hit Cat 4 again

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind that while Isabel has undergone extensive shear from a TUTT signature north of the Bahamas, the core of the storm will pass over warm SSTs and beneath a fairly impressive anticyclone. So a return to Category 4 strength is not out of the question, although 110 m.p.h. speeds are the most likely level as the center of circulation passes the NC Outer Banks into SE VA around the 72-84 hour time frame

[Lowpressure]

More likely a cat 2/3 at landfall. I think a 4 may be stretching a bit. I hope so anyway.

[JCT777]

I saw LC's newsletter, but I no longer think Isabel will be able to get that strong. It's POSSIBLE she will get back to Cat 3 strength - if things start turning around for Isabel this afternoon. Otherwise IMO we are looking at a Cat 1 or minimal Cat 2 at landfall.

[JetMaxx]

IF, and that's the big question...if Isabel can consolidate an eyewall in time, the upper conditions and warm Gulf Stream waters make significant intensification likely....although I no longer believe a 135 mph cat-4 is feasible (the record storm for Hatteras is 130 mph, although the severe September 1938 hurricane passed 100 miles east of the Outer Banks as a 140 mph cat-4; Hazel is the record storm for Cape Fear/Wilmington...135-140 mph).

I'm thinking more like 125-130 mph at landfall...a Frederic/ Betsy type of hurricane--IF the core can reorganize in the next 24-30 hours.

[Fishmn]

And they said that the system is still undergoing shear and will be for the next 12 hours or more. Unless this is a false statement I cant see how Larry can be so opptimistic in his stregthening solution before landfall. She looks like a hit at high Cat 1.

[Hoosierwxdude]

Everyone was optimistic with "Isadore" last year, but it crashed into the Yucatan and never became a hurricane again on its way to Louisiana. In this case the storm is over warm water and obviously will not be plowing into a landmass before the U.S., but the problem as has been stated is some shear and dry air getting wrapped into the western side of the cyclone. SST's aren't everything, HOWEVER the shear is forecast to weaken before landfall and so I do believe it's possible it restrengthens again. How much is tough to say though, but if it doesn't fall off anymore from here it wouldn't be far from Cat 3 status to begin with. It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

On a personal note, I'm rooting for a Wrightsville Beach, NC hit, as that's the location I picked in meteotrade's landfall contest days ago.

[GalvestonDuck]

Hoosier -- I take it you're from Indy? If you are, my thoughts are with you and the good people of your state after the sudden death of Gov. O'Bannon.

[Hoosierwxdude]

Hoosier -- I take it you're from Indy? If you are, my thoughts are with you and the good people of your state after the sudden death of Gov. O'Bannon.

Yeah, it's been a tough time for our state. The people of Indiana didn't see the Governor as a Democrat or Republican (he was a D though in case anyone didn't know), they saw him as a good, honest, down-to-earth man who really cared about all the people of Indiana. It's a shame he had to go (73 is old but not that old), but the state is strong and business will soon carry on as usual.