Complete update on isabel at noon eastern time....9-16-03

[WXBUFFJIM]

ISABEL NEWS

Good morning everyone. Plenty of news this morning to talk about regarding Isabel including hurricane and tropical storm watches. In addition the governor of the state of Virginia, Governor Mark R Warner issued a state of emergency for the common wealth on Monday well ahead of Isabel. A state of emergency declaration will ensure that the Virginia national guard, the state police, and the department of Transportation are on full alert status.

In Newport News, Virginia emergency shelters are opening on Wednesday at various areas. http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=1443506 for the inof on locations and various things you are allowed to bring and not to bring.

EVACUATIONS

A mandatory evacuation order was given in Dare County, NC including the Cape Hatteras areas effective at 12 noon Tuesday September 16th, 2003. This means all preparations should have been rushed to completion in this area and people and residents of the area must leave. A barrier island is not a place to be during category 2-3 hurricanes. When ordered to evacuate, do so!! Better to be safe than sorry.

In addition a mandatory evacuation order was given for Ocracoke Island on the outer banks yesterday. 921 residents live on Ocracoke Island. Meanwhile farther north from ocean City, MD northward, preparations continue as well as possible evacuation plans. Many people along the east coast are not taking any chances and are preparing for this, which is great news. Once again it's better to be safe than sorry in this case, especially if isabel restrengthens as forecasted to do. She ain't dying yet!!!

HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A hurricane watch is now in effect as of 11 am edt for the mid atlantic coastal waters from Little River Inlet, South Carolina northward to Chicoteague, Virginia. This includes the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, The Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the Tidal Potomac River. A hurricane watch means that the hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours time. A hurricane warning means that the hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. Hurricane warnings maybe needed for these areas tonight into Wednesday as Isabel continues her approach.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from Little River Inlet, SC down to South Santee River, SC. A tropical storm watch mans that the tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions ae expected within 24 hour or less.


HURRICANE ISABEL 11 AM EDT ADVISORY

Hurricane Isabel is centred about 600 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina or at 27.4 north, 71.2 west. Movement is northwest at 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. While that makes isabel a category 2 on the saffir simpson scale, restrengthening is a good possibility over the next 24-48 hours prior to landfall. Isabel is showing some signs of reorganization around the center and this will need to be monitored. Just because Isabel weakened over the past 2 days does not mean we're out of the woods. Isabel could come right back and become a major hurricane before landfall and we need to watch that very closely.

Hurricane force winds extend outward 120 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

If Isabel hit at it's current intensity, there would be moderate damage with storm surge levels of 8-10 feet. A cat 3 will have storm surge levels nearing 12 feet with extensive damage. Damage potential is still great here folks and folks along the mid atlantic coast definitely need to pay attention to that statement!!! While it's weaker, it can do extensive damage still and with restrengthening forecasted over the next 2 days, that's not good news!!!

Minimum central pressure was 959 mb or 28.32 inches.

Heavy surf advisories are in effect along the mid atlantic coast as large swells ahead of the hurricane move towards shore!!! Big waves will preceed any landfalling hurricane and Isabel is one of them!! That's a sure sign someone is going to get slammed by the landfall of Isabel by midday Thrusday along the North Carolina and Virginia coasts.

Don't let your guard down peoples until this thing moves inland and gets out of the way. Then we can all rest easy and have a nice weekend since the nice weather will be back!!

Jim

[Nature's Fury]

Thanks Jim for the update!
Angela

[JCT777]

Jim - glad to see you are staying on top of this. Thanks for the update.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Sunfest at OC which was to take place from sept 18-23 has been cancelled!! Obviously with a hurricane approaching that is this large, this strong, and devastating, no one is taking any chances and I would agree with that statement!!!

Just another causality to this hurricane. But folks will end up staying safe and prepared for the hurricane and that's the message at OC and many other east coast cities, towns, and resorts "PREPARATION IS KEY"!!!

Jim

[JCT777]

Sunfest cancelled? Bummer! I was going to take a trip down to OC on Saturday (the day after the hurricane left the area). Still might go anyway, unless most places along the boardwalk will be closed.