Latest Theta-E Map
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ColdFront77
Latest Theta-E Map
Remember, another important tool used in tropical cyclone movement.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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ColdFront77
Tropical systems move into theta-e ridges and away from theta-e troughs.
When there are no true ridges, tropical moisture (the tropical connection) moves toward high theta-e values [in this case in Celsius, some theta-e maps use Kelvin] and away from low theta-e values.
Computer models predicted Hurricane Hugo (in 1989) to hit the Carolinas and then move up the east coast into the New York City area and southern New England, instead the storm moved in to an existing theta-e ridge from Charleston, South Carolina to Charleston, West Virginia.
Hurricane Bob (in 1991) moved right up a theta-e ridge off the east coast and sure enough Bob moved right into southern New England.
Last I knew forecast models and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast tracks initially don't take theta-e ridges and troughs into account.
When there are no true ridges, tropical moisture (the tropical connection) moves toward high theta-e values [in this case in Celsius, some theta-e maps use Kelvin] and away from low theta-e values.
Computer models predicted Hurricane Hugo (in 1989) to hit the Carolinas and then move up the east coast into the New York City area and southern New England, instead the storm moved in to an existing theta-e ridge from Charleston, South Carolina to Charleston, West Virginia.
Hurricane Bob (in 1991) moved right up a theta-e ridge off the east coast and sure enough Bob moved right into southern New England.
Last I knew forecast models and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast tracks initially don't take theta-e ridges and troughs into account.
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Derek Ortt
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ColdFront77
I have no way to put a scale on this map.
This map used to update once an hour. I am not sure why it says 0200UTC Sat 13 Sep 2003.. which was 10:00 PM Eastern, last night.
My posting this map here and Isabel making landfall along the Florida coast are two different things. (I am aware of Philly's post above)
No matter what the case is, this hurricane needs to be monitored closely.
This map used to update once an hour. I am not sure why it says 0200UTC Sat 13 Sep 2003.. which was 10:00 PM Eastern, last night.
My posting this map here and Isabel making landfall along the Florida coast are two different things. (I am aware of Philly's post above)
No matter what the case is, this hurricane needs to be monitored closely.
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ameriwx2003
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ColdFront77
ameriwx2003 wrote:Just posting a question here but I was under the impression that using the Theta -e values was of more use on forecasting a tropical cyclones movement once inland.True or not??:):):)
Yes, I understand that. However, if theta-e values are used for tropical cyclones movement once inland; they should mean something while they are moving toward land.
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ColdFront77
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