Hurricane Heat Potential map says look out

[Anonymous]

Below is a Hurricane Heat Potential map from this afternoon (like ocean temperatures, it doesn't change much day to day)



Now do you notice the area of high HHP north of PR? This is where Isabel became a category 5. And look at where it is now...very LOW HHP, and sure enough it's down to a cat 2.

BUT look where it's headed for...a band of HIGH HHP off the Carolina coast.

This is a factor that we started using since Air Force Met (Nelson) joined our site...and so far it has worked tremendously well. The map doesn't lie...unless something else bigger stops this (which I doubt, since conditions should keep improving)...then don't be surprised if we see a quicker intensification prior to landfall.

I will have a more complete discussion later this afternoon on my site. And don't look now, but she's looking a little bit better already.

[alicia-w]

Actually I thnk you're referring to what's off the Virginia and New Jersey coast, arent you? Not much off either Carolina coast. The water there is only 72 degrees.

[bahamaswx]

It's not an SST map alicia. On the other hand, there are some moderate HHP values off the Carolinas...

[Anonymous]

Well I was referring to green area some distance off the Carolinas (not directly offshore). Isabel shouldn't pass through the high orange area further north so that won't have any affect.

[bahamaswx]

On the other hand... if a Michelle type storm were to form, Cuba and the Caymans would really be in trouble :o

[alicia-w]

My comment regarding the water temp was referring to the potential for intensification. In my experience, cool water temps dont do much to feed a storm.

[Stormsfury]

Maximum Potential of Hurricane Intensity
http://grads.iges.org/pix/atlpot.gif

Another look at Hurricane Heat Potential
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[Anonymous]

The cooler waters off the Carolina coast shouldn't have THAT much influence, since they only cover a thin area of ocean. Also, Isabel will be moving quickly, so it will spend a very short time over the cooler waters. Too short of a time for it to weaken dramatically.

[JetMaxx]

Whew!....if anything develops south of Cuba and Jamaica between now and late October...lookout Florida!! :o :o

[Rainband]

Whew!....if anything develops south of Cuba and Jamaica between now and late October...lookout Florida!! :o :o

Florida's luck seems to be holding out :o I think it's Marshalls no vacancy sign

[Derecho]

Now do you notice the area of high HHP north of PR? This is where Isabel became a category 5. And look at where it is now...very LOW HHP, and sure enough it's down to a cat 2.

I believe you've got a chicken-egg mixup going on.

The lack of HHP didn't cause Isabel to weaken, Isabel caused that area of low HHP (I've looked at Atlantic HHP maps off and on and that low area was not there several days ago.)

Isabel weakened for non-SST reasons. You're simply looking at a cane wake there.