My 11 pm Isabel forecast Tue Sep 16th

[JetMaxx]

Isabel is once again showing signs of strengthening....and moving on a more northward course. By late tomorrow evening and night, I believe Isabel will turn towad the northwest and make landfall in the Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras area of North Carolina on Thursday as a borderline cat 3/4 hurricane.

Currently located IMO at 28.5N and 71.4W at 11 p.m....I'm initializing my forecast at 95 kt (110 mph).

FORECAST:

WEDNESDAY SEP 17

11 AM EST...29.9N - 72.0W...100 KTS

11 PM EST...31.7N - 73.2W...110 KTS



THURSDAY SEP 18

11 AM EST...34.5N - 75.9W...115 KTS (nearing landfall between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras, NC)

11 PM EST...37.6N - 78.0W....80 KTS (just west of Richmond, VA)



FRIDAY SEP 19
11 AM EST...43.5N - 79.0W....50 KTS (near Buffalo, NY)

11 PM EST...50.0N - 77.5W....45 KTS (Extratropical over Canada)

[wxman57]

My impressions are that the 80kts west of Richmond looks quite high. I'm estimating about 50-55kts there with a max of about 90-100 kts at landfall (assuming minimal dry air intrusion).

Nobody is mentioning the EXTREMELY cool and dry air that is flowing off the Carolina coasts into the Atlantic ahead of Isabel. Even Jim Cantore mentioned the cool NE wind. Dew points are in the 50s along the coast there. The cold front is offshore between Isabel and the Carolinas. Water vapor loops indicate plenty of dry air moving toward the east coast associated with that short wave approaching along the northeast Gulf coast. Though Isabel may reach Cat 3 in the next 12 hours or so, it could weaken to a TS if that dry air gets entrained into the circulation prior to landfall.

I just wonder how Isabel is goint to avoid that cool, dry air as it moves into the coast......

[JetMaxx]

Well, everyone is welcome to their opinion....and it will be quite interesting to see who's closest afterwords...

I'll admit I'm normally a little on the bullish side regarding intensification....just as Miles Lawrence tends to remain on the conservative side. Dave Tolleris is in the middle tonight....forecasting a moderate cat-3...105-110 kts. Maybe in the middle is the place to be....only time will tell.

[JetMaxx]

BTW....the 80 kts west of Richmond is my assumption that the eastern side of Isabel's large core will be over Chesapeake Bay. That is forecast over the water....I don't expect 80 kt sustained winds in downtown Richmond; more like gusts to 80 kts.

I'm looking at this hurricane as another Hazel/ Hugo type (except not quite as strong...in the 942-947 mb range at landfall)....and therefore expect Isabel to be a fast mover, carrying damaging winds well inland.

[wxman57]

BTW....the 80 kts west of Richmond is my assumption that the eastern side of Isabel's large core will be over Chesapeake Bay. That is forecast over the water....I don't expect 80 kt sustained winds in downtown Richmond; more like gusts to 80 kts.

I'm looking at this hurricane as another Hazel/ Hugo type (except not quite as strong...in the 942-947 mb range at landfall)....and therefore expect Isabel to be a fast mover, carrying damaging winds well inland.

First of all, I agree on no 80kts near Richmond, if the storm had those kind of winds then they would be over water to the east. However, see the latest IR satellite and you'll notice dry air intrusion has begun. Isabel's squalls are diminishing rapidly and the eye is opening up (unwinding, if you will).

[JetMaxx]

Maybe I'm a good luck charm

Since coming onboard the internet in June of 2000, there have been major hurricane threats....but all have fizzled (weakened below 100 kts or turned away).

[tundra]

I have not seen the dry air intrusion...but then again, I don't know what to look for on that.
How do you see this intrusion?

[SacrydDreamz]

Nobody is mentioning the EXTREMELY cool and dry air that is flowing off the Carolina coasts into the Atlantic ahead of Isabel. Even Jim Cantore mentioned the cool NE wind. Dew points are in the 50s along the coast there. The cold front is offshore between Isabel and the Carolinas. Water vapor loops indicate plenty of dry air moving toward the east coast associated with that short wave approaching along the northeast Gulf coast. Though Isabel may reach Cat 3 in the next 12 hours or so, it could weaken to a TS if that dry air gets entrained into the circulation prior to landfall.

You could be right, but the dry air has been with her all day and she has strengthened, though slightly. Hardly anyone is saying much because they feel it isn't much of an issue.. trust me, they see it! Can you explain why Fabian held his strength so long over such cold water? He was a hurricane over 14°C water before his demise!!