Hurricane Isabel is beginning to set the pace once again toward becoming a very Dangerous Hurricane, Hi res imagery strongly suggests that the upper environment around Isabel is improving fast enough to allow Isabel a shot at explosively deepen in the Southern Gulf Stream. Imagery shows a strong Atlantic Ridge, NE of Canada and another Ridge nosing off the Eastern seaboard, also noted on WV imagery is the trof that's lifting out over the New England states at this time, as the second Ridge begins to build in along the East coast this should allow Isabel to Head WNW, therefor it remains very possible that the track could lean further to the Left with time, what I mean by left is not Melbourne Florida, Left to me is Wilmington NC, that cleared up let's move on.
This is what I expect .....
Hurricane Isabel should be nearing land fall just east of Topsail beach NC, it is likely that the Center of Isabel will pass these locations on her way Northward, the following are... Carteret County, New Bern, Greenville, Wilson and Rocky Mount, it must be noted that any deviation further to the left and the core of the Hurricane could come Dangerously close to Wilmington. The Center of the Hurricane will be near the coast within the Warning area in about 36 Hours so you need to get things done now. Residents within the Warning area should Rush to completion to protect life and property, weather conditions will begin to deteriorate well before the Center arrives at the coast. IMO rainfall amounts will exceed 8 to 12 inches along Isabel's path. Tropical Storm force winds should be experienced as far south as Myrtle beach SC. Isabel is likely to produce storm surge coastal flooding of up to 15 feet. Heavy surf advisories are now in effect for the US East Coast Northward to Chatham Massachusetts. I will be making some adjustments to this im sure, depending on just how strong the Canadian Ridge builds back after the trof lifts off the NE coast will determine if this track should be shifted West to include other parts of the SC coast as far south as Charleston. More later
John
Isabel a player/and likely following this path
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SacrydDreamz
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wxman57
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Wilmington
While I don't disagree that Isabel could go inland as far south as Wilmington, I do see quite a bit of dry air along the east U.S. coast just ready to be drawn into Isabel. The best we can hope for is that the dry air gets entrained into Isabel soon. This could cause dramatic weakening before landfall.
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Dry Air
While I don't disagree that Isabel could go inland as far south as Wilmington, I do see quite a bit of dry air along the east U.S. coast just ready to be drawn into Isabel. The best we can hope for is that the dry air gets entrained into Isabel soon. This could cause dramatic weakening before landfall.
wxman I agree with that thinking and see the dry package to the North, however I think she is likely to deepen a bit well before land fall. My thought was If that dry air gets pinched off combined with acceleration should get the core there before major weakening starts, but it's gwxmanoing to have to happen tonight and not tomorrow, at any rate should the dry air become entrained into her circulation it would be Check Mate and game over.
John
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