Post your local Mets comments on Isabelle

[Josephine96]

LOL about Mets lol... I wanted to be 100th reply to this thread ....

Local mets here say "we'll watch it.. but it's not our problem.."

[bfez1]

email from our local met to friends in NC:

Here is an email I thought I would share with everyone that I just sent to my friends in Eastern NC. As many of you may know, I spent nearly four years there working for the local ABC affiliate before coming here, so I have a lot of people back there I am very worried about. Anyway, what follows is my discussion of the situation and my advice to them:

Hi Everyone,

Global models this morning remain clustered between Hatteras and Morehead, while the ensemble forecast has targeted Ocracoke. Most tropical models are clustered between Morehead and Myrtle Beach. As I expected, NHC has shifted their path west a bit. At this point, I would say the eye will pass somewhere between Emerald Isle and Ocracoke. Even though it's impossible to say, if I had to pick a spot right now, I'd say Salter Path which is west of NHC's forecast track. I still think the models may be under doing the strength of the ridge to the north. After landfall, I expect more of a WNW motion as opposed to NW. Either way you look at it, a direct hit.

For the most part, I agree with NHC's forecast this morning, except I believe it may be stronger than what they are showing. As of the 11pm EST update, they are showing no increase in strength of Isabel until landfall. This is based on the models showing some decrease in strength. This would make sense because she has been undergoing a lot of shear. However, if we look at the trend in the satellite imagery over the past several hours, it is clear that she is once again beginning to become better organized than earlier on Tuesday as the eyewall is starting to enclose again. I believe this to be, in part, due to high pressure beginning to build in aloft to her north. This should lessen the shear a bit just prior to landfall. That, combined with warmer Gulf Stream waters just offshore should result in some more intensification, so I think you are looking at a weak to moderate category 3 at landfall. Also, if she phases with the trough which is swinging in from the west, effects of the two merging together could even cause her to get stronger winds, and more importantly, to *maintain strength longer* after landfall. So, prepare for a hurricane stronger than what NHC says will hit. This is always a good idea anyway. At any rate, satellite imagery should be closely monitored to look for signs of intensification (Skip, Bobby, Jonathan - may want to set up a 1KM sector especially for her).

Looking at historical storms again, I can draw some similarities here with Fran in 1996. The path will be similar, but more east of Fran's. I also think this hurricane will not weaken as fast when it makes landfall. It was pretty clear when Isabel has been more of an "annular"-type hurricane in her lifecycle. These types of hurricanes tend to weaken a lot slower and are a bit nastier than typical hurricanes.

Here's a link with more info on that: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articl ... arhurr.pdf

In the case of Fran, North Topsail Beach was hit the hardest because of its proximity to the right of center which came onshore near Bald Head Island. In this case, I think Carteret County may sustain the worst damage with the way this one is coming onshore.

So what to expect?

1.) Major tidal flooding. Downeast, Pamlico, New Bern, Riverbend, Washington, OBX, you name it. Water levels could be anywhere from 7-10 feet above normal. Elevate belongings. This could be some of the highest tidal flooding we have seen in a long, long time.

2.) High Winds. Everyone along and east of Highway 17 and along and south of 70 will experience SUSTAINED winds of 80-110 mph. Gusts could be much higher. If it were my property, I would be boarding windows up.

3.) Storm Surge/Beach Erosion. This will be highest in Carteret County and along the OBX. We could be talking 8-12 feet close to the center depending on her strength at landfall. I suspect dunes WILL easily be breached very close to where she makes landfall in Carteret. At the time of this writing, buoy reports indicate seas already 25 feet high 250 nm east of Charleston, SC. I suspect there will be a number of beach homes on Bouge Banks destroyed.

4.) Tornadoes. Isolated tornado threat prior to landfall overnight Wednesday. Numerous F0-F3 tornadoes possible.

5.) Rainfall. This won't be a Floyd-type rain event storm, but easily 5-10" of rain could fall and flash flooding is also a major concern, especially along creeks and streams inland.

For those of you further south around Wilmington, if it stays on the path I am outlining, your effects would not be as bad because you would be on the weaker side of the storm. Any jog of the storm further south could change that, so prepare accordingly.

Final preparations for the storm should be rushed to completion early Wednesday morning as conditions will continue to deteriorate Wednesday night.

I know you all will get through just fine. TV people here, this is your chance to really help your community and save lives. Again, my thoughts and prayers are with you all.

Good Luck,

John


John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116