Isabel has a EYE! Where is thre dry air killing her folks?

#21 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:07 am

I certainly respect DT's opinion on the effects (or lack thereof) of cool and dry air entrainment. If hurricane forecasting was an exact science then we'd have a much easier time forecasting these things!

Presently, I'm holding with our previous forecast of 100-110 mph at landfall, but my gut is saying much weaker. Just in the past few satellite frames, you can see another outflow boundary eminating from Isabel's southwest side. It appears that convection in the souhwest eyewall has collapsed (as it did yesterday afternoon). Entrainment of dry and/or cool air would cause such a collapse. Let's watch Isabel closely today for other signs.

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:15 am

The best friend for both positions in favor of Isabel more organized and Isabel falling apart will be time so let's wait a few hours and we will see who is right or not on the Isabels intensity question but in the meantime let cool heads prevail and for sure we will know very soon what will transpire.

Rainband · #23 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:28 am

cycloneye wrote:The best friend for both positions in favor of Isabel more organized and Isabel falling apart will be time so let's wait a few hours and we will see who is right or not on the Isabels intensity question but in the meantime let cool heads prevail and for sure we will know very soon what will transpire.

Good idea luis :wink:

Amanzi · #24 Postby **Amanzi** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:33 am

Rainband wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:I second that Chad. Thanks wxman57.
Can I third that Time will tell the story in the mean time..Lets be Nice and see if Wxman57 is correct..like he usually is

Ok Im going to fourth that and like my friend Rainband says...Let's be nice 8-)

PS: Wxman57 thanks for all the great explanations you give with your posts.. I have learned loads from reading them

#25 Postby **Pebbles** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:37 am

I like a good analytical debate and see nothing wrong with one...it's going to be fun to see exactly what happens..And as you can tell even the NHC isn't sure whats going on LOL can you imagine the debates the different mets have there! (And you know that they have to deal with all the political BS that is unavoidable that no one here has to deal with too!

)

#26 Postby **vortex100** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:42 am

What we are seeing on the satellite image is the appearance of an eye, not a real hurricane eye. Dry air has been well entrained into the flow and has spiralled into the center of the storm, giving the appearance of an eye. A true hurricane eye is ringed on all sides by strong convection with cold cloud tops. This is clearly not the case. What we have this morning is a spiralling pattern of less the impressive convection, interspersed with bands of dry air.

That being said, the dry air is not weakening the hurricane much more. It still has a fairly intense rotation and packs a good amount of wind. I would guess that because of the dry air entrainment, however, this storm may not produce as much rainfall as I was expecting earlier.

debbiet · #27 Postby **debbiet** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:54 am

Just wondering, if this isn't a true eye, why did TWC just report air recon as saying that the eyewall has completely closed in? Or has it changed since they were out there?

Isabel has a EYE! Where is thre dry air killing her folks?

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