11 AM UPDATE, NEW EVACUATIONS, FORECAST, AND WARNINGS....

[WXBUFFJIM]

HURRICANE NEWS AND NEW EVACUATIONS

Good morning everyone. Some brand new information this morning. As of 11 AM EDT, mandatory evacuations have been ordered from low lying coastlines along the Virginia coast including the coastal areas of the Chesapeake Bay. This mandatory evacuation includes Virginia Beach east of Pacific Avenue. The ocean front hotels are not a good place to be. In addition a mandatory evacuation continues throughout the outer banks of North Carolina and will continue into this evening. The biggest concern is the hurricane moving onshore at times of high tide Thursday afternoon, which would make the high tides already in place even higher. A dangerous situatiuon indeed.

The governors of 3 states, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland has all declared state of emergencies well ahead of the storm. That means the national guard, state police, and dept of transportation will be on full alert status during the entire storm.

HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the entire North Carolina coast from Cape Fear northward up to Chicoteague, Virginia. This includes the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward and the Outer Banks. Cities and communities in the hurricane warning include Morehead City, Wrightsville Beach, Cape Hatteras, Virginia Beach and Norfolk, Virginia. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. Further north, the hurricane watches in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac have been changed to tropical storm warnings. In addition a tropical storm warning is in effect from Cape Fear to South Santee River, South Carolina and north of Chicoteague, Virginia to Sandy Hook, New Jersey including the Delaware Bay. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less.

11 AM ADVISORY ON ISABEL

Hurricane Isabel is centered about 400 miles south southeast of Cape haetteras, North Carolina at latitude 30.0 north, longitude 72.6 west. Movement is north northwst at 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the day today. This would result in a hurricane landfall midday Thursday between Wrightsville Beach and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Tropical storm conditions will occur along the Virginia and North Carolina coast tonite followed by hurricane conditions on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward 115 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles.

Minimum central pressure remains the same at 957 millibars or 28.26 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches is likely along the North Carolina coast, particularly the outer banks area tonight through Thursday. Storm surge flooding of 7-12 feet above normal tide levels is expected along the North Carolina coast. The high tide Thursday afternoon will make an already high tide even higher on the outer banks. On the southern chesapeake Bay south of the mouth of the Potomac Rier, storm surge flooding of 4-7 feet above normal tide levels is expected to occur. This would flood the western shores of the bay with minor tidal flooding. Further up the bay with a weaker Isabel Thursday night into Friday morning, storm surge flooding of 3-5 feet above normal tide levels are expected along with tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane force in Washington DC and Baltimore. In addition isolated tornadoes are possible in the right front quadrant of the circulation, maybe in the outer feeder rainbands and heavier squalls.

More updates with an intermediate advisory at 2 pm edt.

Jim