Hurricane warnings are now in effect from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Chincoteague, VA, including Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds and southern Chesapeake Bay.....I strongly urge everyone living in the hurricane warning area to rush their preparations to completion before the onset of strong winds tonight.
Isabel is a very large and dangerous hurricane, and will likely intensify back to a category three hurricane before landfall tomorrow. If you live in an evacuation zone, or are ordered to evacuate.....PLEASE DO DO and WITHOUT DELAY!
My Current Analysis:
WEDNESDAY SEP 17
10 AM EST...30.0N - 72.5W....95 KTS (110 MPH)
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Forecast:
TODAY - WEDNESDAY SEP 17
7 PM EST...31.6N - 73.5W...100 KTS (115 MPH)
THURSDAY SEP 18
7 AM EST...33.6N - 75.1W...105 KTS (121 MPH)
11 AM EST..35.0N - 76.2W...110 KTS (127 MPH) **Landfall near Ocracoke, NC**
7 PM EST...37.5N - 78.0W....65 KTS (75 MPH) **Inland just west of Richmond, VA**
FRIDAY SEP 19
7 AM EST...43.0N - 79.0W....45 KTS (52 MPH)...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL **Inland near Buffalo, NY**
7 PM EST...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WESTERN QUEBEC, CANADA
My WED 9/17 10 a.m. Isabel analysis/ forecast
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Your Opinion About the Dry Air?
You've been very accurate so far...I'm interested to hear your opinion about the dry air theory...why it MIGHT weaken her or why it would not cause her to weaken. Lots of talk heard on TWC, etc about the dry air too. Also, do the models seem to have shifted their tracks to the east a little more this morning?
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GalvestonDuck
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JetMaxx
Debbie, I may eat my words...but I believe the overall synoptic pattern; a baroclinic setup quite similar to hurricane Hazel...of a negative tilt upper system aiding in outflow as Isabel accelerates toward the coast combined with the warm gulf stream giving an energy boost will allow the hurricane to overcome the dry air.
I also believe the dry air will retreat northward in response to the high pressure moving off the northeast coast providing a moist southeast return flow...and help guide Isabel NW toward the coast.
I'm not a professional meteorologist, and have never attended college...but have researched severe storms and hurricanes with a passion since age 12...and I'm 42 in less than a month. Just as most anything in life, when you do something long enough...you tend to become very good at it -- especially when it's something you enjoy.
I did back off slightly on my intensity forecast...from 130 mph to 125 at landfall; partially due to the dry air...and also because the sst's aren't exceptionally warm...except in the gulf stream itself offshore North Carolina.
I also believe the dry air will retreat northward in response to the high pressure moving off the northeast coast providing a moist southeast return flow...and help guide Isabel NW toward the coast.
I'm not a professional meteorologist, and have never attended college...but have researched severe storms and hurricanes with a passion since age 12...and I'm 42 in less than a month. Just as most anything in life, when you do something long enough...you tend to become very good at it -- especially when it's something you enjoy.
I did back off slightly on my intensity forecast...from 130 mph to 125 at landfall; partially due to the dry air...and also because the sst's aren't exceptionally warm...except in the gulf stream itself offshore North Carolina.
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JetMaxx
Yes, Shawn....I do expect Isabel to accelerate toward the coast; and my forecast may be on the conservative side. I went with a UKmet/GFDL/NHC suite blend when forecasting Isabel's forward speed...but my gut instincts tell me Isabel may be moving faster...maybe NW @ 20-25 at landfall; and NNW @ 30-35 by the time she's entering Virginia.
If so, Isabel may actually make landfall closer to daybreak than midday tomorrow.
If so, Isabel may actually make landfall closer to daybreak than midday tomorrow.
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GalvestonDuck
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Thanks, Perry! 
Almost all the forecasts were for landfall sometime tomorrow but I wasn't seeing alot about her increase in forward speed and I've had people ask me here how she could still be so far away (they're basing it on simply looking at graphics) and yet get there in such a short amount of time. One lady here has a relative who lives on Sea Level, NC, so she's watching closely.
Thanks again!
Almost all the forecasts were for landfall sometime tomorrow but I wasn't seeing alot about her increase in forward speed and I've had people ask me here how she could still be so far away (they're basing it on simply looking at graphics) and yet get there in such a short amount of time. One lady here has a relative who lives on Sea Level, NC, so she's watching closely.
Thanks again!
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AussieMark
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JetMaxx
It depends on how intense Isabel is at landfall...and how fast the forward speed becomes once onshore...
I notice NHC isn't projecting as much acceleration as me until Isabel is far inland over northwest VA/ WV...and they also only forecast a 110 mph hurricane at landfall -- so they expect the strong winds to be less of a factor well inland (northeast NC; Richmond; Washington, D.C.) than I do....probably less than 50-55 mph peak gusts in Richmond and 45-55 in D.C.
On the other hand, if Isabel were to explode into a 135 mph cat-4, and accelerate even more than I'm projecting....Richmond might see 100 mph gusts, and 65-80 mph gusts in places far inland such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo (based on wind reports from hurricane Hazel in 1954).
On my current forecast....I expect Richmond, VA to get wind gusts in the 75-90 mph range....and Washington D.C. peak gusts in the 55-70 mph range.
I notice NHC isn't projecting as much acceleration as me until Isabel is far inland over northwest VA/ WV...and they also only forecast a 110 mph hurricane at landfall -- so they expect the strong winds to be less of a factor well inland (northeast NC; Richmond; Washington, D.C.) than I do....probably less than 50-55 mph peak gusts in Richmond and 45-55 in D.C.
On the other hand, if Isabel were to explode into a 135 mph cat-4, and accelerate even more than I'm projecting....Richmond might see 100 mph gusts, and 65-80 mph gusts in places far inland such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo (based on wind reports from hurricane Hazel in 1954).
On my current forecast....I expect Richmond, VA to get wind gusts in the 75-90 mph range....and Washington D.C. peak gusts in the 55-70 mph range.
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