HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003
...ISABEL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
BLADEN...COLUMBUS...ROBESON...PENDER...NEW HANOVER...BRUNSWICK AND
IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...HORRY AND GEORGETOWN.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR TO CHINCOTEAGUE
VIRGINIA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ACROSS HORRY AND
GEORGETOWN COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING. REMEMBER...A HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS.
ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND CEDAR ISLAND BETWEEN NOON AND
2 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISABEL TO TRACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BEFORE LANDFALL REQUIRES THAT THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BE AS FAR WEST AS CAPE FEAR.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
NEAR 110 MPH...MAKING ISABEL A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. THE
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 957 MB OR 28.26 INCHES.
ISABEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR ISABELS ARRIVAL SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS
EVENING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
EVACUATE INLAND IF ASKED TO DO SO BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.
...LOCAL WIND IMPACTS...
AS ISABEL APPROACHES THE AREA...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AND GUST 25 TO 30 MPH MAINLY NEAR THE COAST....WITH
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALSO.
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF ISABEL...NORTH WINDS GREATER THAN 39
MPH WILL REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AND SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...TURNING NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 40 TO 50 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS HORRY...ROBESON...COLUMBUS...
BLADEN AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY.
THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN CAPE
LOOKOUT AND CEDAR ISLAND EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
ISABEL MOVES FURTHER NORTH...WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING.
...STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS...
WITH THE MOON HALF FULL...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AT A MINIMUM. OCEAN
FRONT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 1 PM TODAY...AND 130 AM AND 2 PM
ON THURSDAY.
IF THE CENTER OF ISABEL FOLLOWS THE FORECAST PATH...PASSING CAPE
FEAR ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING...NORTH WINDS
WILL BLOW WATER PARALLEL TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF
THE COAST BELOW CAPE FEAR. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...MAINLY WITH SOUND-SIDE
FLOODING...WITH LITTLE SURGE EXCEPT MINOR SOUND-SIDE FLOODING
EXPECTED BELOW CAPE FEAR.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IMPACT OF
STORM SURGE WILL LESSEN BUT SOUND-SIDE FLOODING ON THE BARRIER
ISLANDS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAROLINA BEACH AREA.
HIGH SURF AND A LONG SHORE CURRENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
SEAS OF 13 TO 16 FT WERE BEING REPORTED AT FRYING PAN SHOALS LATE
THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AROUND 23 FT BY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND UP TO
AROUND 20 FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
...SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...
ROUGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS ARE ONGOING.
SWIMMERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF NEW
HANOVER COUNTY...WITH UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. RAINWATER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
...NEXT UPDATE...
CHECK ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND STATEMENTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC FOR MORE
INFORMATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ILM
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM.
CAROPOLO
12 PM HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...
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