Morning Isabel forecast, solid 2 at landfall

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic13fd.html


still remain in the middle of the debate here regarding lf intensity. Just following guidance and climo from Bonnie for storms of this structure

[Deenac813]

Well a 2 is much better than the CAT 4/5 she was.. that would have been catastrophic! However, even Isabel as a CAT 2 is very dangerous & people should make sure they are prepared!

[Derek Ortt]

yes, this still is a destructive cane and has not fallen completely apart

also, new forecast is now available as well

[JetMaxx]

The last supplementary vortex shows flight level winds of 80-85 kts (likely meaning 80-90 MPH at the surface) over 160 miles NNE of the center.

Whether Isabel is a major hurricane or not at landfall, she is one of the largest I've ever seen, and will likely mean hurricane force winds over a large portion of the mid-Atlantic coast....at least along the beachfronts from North Carolina to the Delmarva.

[Derek Ortt]

Evem though recon found those higher winds, this does not appear to be a major hurricane as for storms like this, a more appropriate conversion factor is about 80 percent, instead of the usual 90. However, if the system becomes more convectively active, then the 90 or greater rule will again by the way to go