121 kt wind found

[chadtm80]

671
URNT14 KNHC 171802
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01321 10749 13082 10706 04052
02320 20747 23064 20606 03053
03318 30745 33045 30707 05067
04316 40742 43024 40707 05062
05315 50740 53998 50808 05069
06313 60738 63951 60909 05076
07311 70736 73904 70909 05086
08309 80734 83823 81111 05056
09307 90732 93770 91413 05047
MF310 M0735 MF095
OBS 01 AT 1629Z
OBS 09 AT 1705Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 02045
01303 10727 13740 11512 22051
02302 20725 23796 21312 21061
03300 30723 33853 31111 22089
04298 40721 43922 40908 22113
05296 50719 53972 50909 22079
06295 60717 63007 60907 22077
07293 70715 73034 70908 22068
MF299 M0722 MF121
OBS 01 AT 1725Z
OBS 07 AT 1752Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 20055
RMK AF866 2113A ISABEL OB 19

[rtd2]

could it be a malfunction in the drop-sone???

[ALhurricane]

I'm not one to criticize the NHC, but I think dropping the winds to 105mph at the 2pm was a mistake. If for any other reason it tends to tell the general public that it is weakening, when recon confirms that is not case. In fact, it's closer to Cat 3 now than it was this morning.

I would think they would be back up to 110 and even possibly 115 at the 5pm advisory.

[Josephine96]

AL- I'm going to say at 5pm they'll be back up to 115.. maybe even 120..

NHC shouldn't be dropping winds before recon confirmation when a storm is this close.. Especially a borderline major..

[JetMaxx]

I keep telling everyone this hurricane has consistently been stronger than it has appeared...

The other night the Dvorak rating was 5.5...or 100-105 kts, but recon was finding 150 kts at 700 mb (or 135 kt at the surface).

I fully believe it was as intense as Camille and Mitch the afternoon before the first recon mission (IMO 905-910 mb)....yet t-numbers were 7.0 or 921 mb.

Recon has now found 115 kts in the NE quadrant and 121 kts in the SE....which tells me it's likely 100-105 kts (cat-3), yet NHC inexplicably lowers the intensity from 95 to 90 kts at 2 p.m.....which in my honest opinion 1) doesn't make sense, especially in light of the 956 mb central pressure; and 2) it's beginning to accelerate toward the coastline...where many folks will see that 2 p.m. bulletin and say "Hey..why should we leave the Outer Banks? it's falling apart"...and unfortunately some...IMO many won't leave -- and may drown tomorrow because of it

BTW - just in case some don't know what the 956 mb pressure is....put it in perspective. It's currently as intense as Floyd at landfall which took 56 lives; and is more intense than such memorable hurricanes as Elena, Alicia, Emily, Connie, Carol, and Edna were at U.S. landfall.

Isabel is also currently stronger than the 1906 and 1909 Florida Keys hurricanes that both took over 100 lives...every one of them from drowning in the storm surge. :o :o

[capecodder]

Excellent information, Perry. I think it's reasonablr to assume that it will be upgraded to a Cat 3.

The problem is, sadly, some people only listen to weakening announcements. And the fact that so many have NEVER experienced a
Cat 3, and will just assume that it's just a bad windstorm.

[southerngale]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/1925Z
B. 30 DEG 54 MIN N
73 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2700 M
D. 95 KT
E. 050 DEG 70 NM
F. 140 DEG 114 KT
G. 050 DEG 064 NM
H. 955 MB
I. 8 C/ 3075 M
J. 14 C/ 3096 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. WEAK RAGGED
M. E320/50/25
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF866 2113A ISABEL OB 23
MAX FL WIND 121 KT SE QUAD 1737Z.
VERY WEAK EYEWALL RADAR PRESENTATION. MANY HOLES IN
WALL STRUCTURE

[Mello1]

Someone asked this question earlier today about the pressure (958 at the time, I believe) being more reminiscent of a strong Cat 3 storm than a Cat 2. I was very intrigued by that question, because if that is true, then this storm is not behaving the way it appears on the sats. Are we placing too much emphasis on what Isabel looks like, vs. the pressure and wind gauges that it's producing???