12z Canadian

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:05 pm

From Hatteras, NC to VA coastline for landfall...right up the DELMARVA but DOESN'T TURN ISABEL NORTHWARD...continues with a NNW to NW movement through Central/Western PA and NW'westward into Ontario, Canada.

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

TheWeatherZone · #2 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:08 pm

Wow, that would not be a good senario. I have a feeling she's going to go farther north. Not by much, but enough to give those in the Delmarva and people all the way up to lets say C Jersey, some major headaches. Storms, whats your take with the Canadian's senario? Likely, or UnLikely?

Mike~

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:10 pm

Keep in mind this 12Z Canadian run is a shift to the LEFT from its recent runs. The model earlier took Isabel to New England.

#4 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:12 pm

quite an eye chart

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:13 pm

The 12z is seeing the ridge much stronger than the 00z GGEM. Anyway, this looks much like the EURO last night, just a bit slower and definitely further west after Day 4.

EURO last night's Day 4
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

EURO Day 5 Last night
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

The 12z Canadian reinforces the left hook idea, doesn't it?

SF

TheWeatherZone · #6 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:17 pm

My concern is how far north will she make it before the hook. I have a boat in the waters of a Southern NJ inlet. If she makes it up the delmarva before a left "hook", things could get rough for a little bit around here.

Mike~

DelStormLover · #7 Postby **DelStormLover** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:19 pm

If the canadian is right we may still get cane-force winds......................at12 local met said cane force winds s of oc, ts winds n of oc..............he may be wrong....

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:20 pm

I know what you mean Mike. Isabel looks like it WILL accelerate just before or after landfall and that also is a big concern as well ...

SF

Heatseeker · #9 Postby **Heatseeker** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:19 pm

DelStormLover wrote:If the canadian is right we may still get cane-force winds......................at12 local met said cane force winds s of oc, ts winds n of oc..............he may be wrong....

Howdy neighbor! I am in Denton MD.

I keep thinking about all those people with RVs parked at Dover for the race this weekend. Unless they've canceled it?

paul e · #10 Postby **paul e** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:26 pm

I think the angle of attack makes any forecast landfall precarious at best. The slightest wobble to the east causes Issy to miss the outer banks, and take dead aim on the Chessy bay. Im a little nervous at how a small adjustment like this would catch alot of people up to s. jersey very unaware, due to the recent weakening, and due to the recent emphasis on the southern track.

#11 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:52 pm

paul e wrote:I think the angle of attack makes any forecast landfall precarious at best. The slightest wobble to the east causes Issy to miss the outer banks, and take dead aim on the Chessy bay. Im a little nervous at how a small adjustment like this would catch alot of people up to s. jersey very unaware, due to the recent weakening, and due to the recent emphasis on the southern track.

So am I!

jude · #12 Postby **jude** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:58 pm

[quote="paul e"]I think the angle of attack makes any forecast landfall precarious at best. The slightest wobble to the east causes Issy to miss the outer banks, and take dead aim on the Chessy bay. Im a little nervous at how a small adjustment like this would catch alot of people up to s. jersey very unaware, due to the recent weakening, and due to the recent emphasis on the southern track.[/quote]

If you only knew... just back from a ride over to Stone Harbor, NJ- live on the mainland from there. Saw exactly ONE house with plywood. One- on the entire island. Everywhere, the contractors were continuing their framing, painting. Puh.
Money can't buy intelligence for these million dollar homeowners.

Surfers in the family are speechless- at least 8 ft already, set after set after set. Gorgeous sunshine, NW wind. How deceiving.

Gotta go cook more food. I am figuring on quite a hit here.......I might be the only game in town by Friday.
-Jude

JCT777 · #13 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 3:06 pm

jude - I agree that more people in that area should be boarding up, just in case. As pal stated, it won't take much of an eastward shift to put eastern MD, DE and southern NJ in a bad situation - especially if Isabel is able to gain some intensity during the next day or so.

GalvestonDuck · #14 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 2:56 pm

Heatseeker wrote:
DelStormLover wrote:If the canadian is right we may still get cane-force winds......................at12 local met said cane force winds s of oc, ts winds n of oc..............he may be wrong....

Howdy neighbor! I am in Denton MD.

I keep thinking about all those people with RVs parked at Dover for the race this weekend. Unless they've canceled it?

http://www.newsandrecord.com/news/now/dover17.htm

They've canceled some activities.

Heatseeker · #15 Postby **Heatseeker** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 3:23 pm

GalvestonDuck wrote:They've canceled some activities.

Yup, saw that. But they didn't cancel the big races on the weekend. So I suspect most of the campers will stay put.

Maybe that's OK - maybe not. :?:

12z Canadian

12z Canadian

Who is online