Strong Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

[Siker]

Looks like the 06Z GFS dropped the storms in the Tropical Atlantic. Even if development occurred, any storm heading toward the Caribbean would be ripped apart by wind shear next week. The only chance for survival for a Cape Verde storm would be a track north of the Caribbean and likely out to sea east of the U.S.

Wxman, I know that the vast majority of waves do not develop as they cross the Atlantic, but can you give any input on what is hostile immediately off the coast (or negative aspects of the wave itself) that would prohibit development (before reaching the more hostile central Atlantic)?

[wxman57]

One reason why the tropical waves are struggling after moving offshore Africa is the abundance of dry, sinking air that dominates the deep tropics. I plotted the July specific humidity for the 500mb (18,000ft) level. Dry, dry and more dry! The vertical velocity anomaly says plenty of sinking air across the deep tropics. Cape Verde storms have to go north of 20 to find more hospitable conditions (and maybe even north of 25N).

On the graphic below, yellows, oranges, and reds indicate drier air than normal. Blues/purples are more moist than normal.

[cycloneye]

For now it looks good but down the road is when the real test comes for it.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[blp]

What could have been if this was a normal season. That is a good looking wave right now. Enjoy it while it lasts.

[Sanibel]

Will probably get zapped like the one ahead of it.

[Hammy]

What could have been if this was a normal season. That is a good looking wave right now. Enjoy it while it lasts.

http://i59.tinypic.com/29hru0.gif

Another indication that the waves this season seem to be coming off stronger. I don't remember any like this last year, and even Edouard's wave looked like it was struggling even before it exited.

[Weatherboy1]

That is a fairly robust wave ... and our little swirl further west in the tropical Atlantic is trying to fire up a LITTLE convection. Nothing like we'd see in a normal season, as others have noted. But maybe things will finally start to stir a bit? We'll see.

[floridasun78]

if stay the way it now we could see nhc put circle on area

[cycloneye]

How fast the wave has dried and models don't do anything so I think this thread can go down the pages.