When will we see Danny?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm thinking maybe this weekend from the low off the east coast that is expected?

That's going to be a Nor'easter.

Never know it could briefly turn subtropical, though I doubt it.

[HurricaneRyan]

August 21st.

I'm more concerned about the El Nino's affects in California this year than the hurricane season. 1997 was the last time we had major rain and flooding so if it happens again...oh boy.

[Hammy]

August 21st.

I'm more concerned about the El Nino's affects in California this year than the hurricane season. 1997 was the last time we had major rain and flooding so if it happens again...oh boy.

Unfortunately it may take rains like that to end the drought like it did in Texas earlier in the year.

As for Danny, I'm thinking September 1 at this point, given the absolute lack of anything in the models now, and the GFS keeps pushing everything back to beyond 300 hours.

[Ntxw]

This year is following very much like 1997, activity early on and nothing in August until Erika. My guess would be Sept 1-5 for Danny, its hard going peak season with no storm. Seasonal subtropical jet/polar jet moving further south in October with strong Nino analogs is favoring season ending shear, however not a guaranty just what has happened in the past strictly on Enso strength.

Not a forecast, just opinion.

[ninel conde]

August 21st.

I'm more concerned about the El Nino's affects in California this year than the hurricane season. 1997 was the last time we had major rain and flooding so if it happens again...oh boy.

im rather confident the rain will be sparse for california. same old pattern for years now whether its el nino, la nina or el neutral.

[ninel conde]

It was hard to be certain what LC was saying but it seemed to me he was also questioning the conventional wisdom of cali rains the winter. If cali is dry again this winter then they have big trouble ahaed.

[NDG]

August 21st.

I'm more concerned about the El Nino's affects in California this year than the hurricane season. 1997 was the last time we had major rain and flooding so if it happens again...oh boy.

im rather confident the rain will be sparse for california. same old pattern for years now whether its el nino, la nina or el neutral.

You are already busting on your forecast when parts of California already has seen record rainfall (relatively speaking) this summer due to the current El Nino.
Long term forecasts including the trusty ECMWF show the blocking pattern in the NE Pacific to collapse as we get into late fall and into the winter.

[HurricaneRyan]

Welp, 3 days off.

[galaxy401]

I got quite close but was off by two days.

[LarryWx]

Anyway, my WAG for the fun of it is for Danny to form on 8/17.

It looks like I was the closest since I was one day off with my 8/17 WAG. What do I win, an all expenses paid vacation to all places where Danny landfalls in the Caribbean?