Posible GOM development?

[N2FSU]

Convection ramping up this morning:

[NDG]

And the 06z GFS is even weaker than the 0z run. The GFS is coming into reality lol, even the CMC, so when are the rest of you will?
El Niño wins again

BTW, you guys realize that the percentage remains 10/20?

[NDG]

Like mentioned by some of us, nothing but heavy rains will be coming out of this system, for some areas some much needed rains.

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015



A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
the Yucatan Peninsula, and northern portions of Central America.
This system is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico later
this weekend, and will begin to interact with an upper-level low
located near the Texas coast. This interaction should result in the
development of a broad and complex area of low pressure that moves
northward over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Although
environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf coast and
southeastern United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[tropicwatch]

It is looking a lot better convection wise this morning.

[northjaxpro]

I will say that although this system, if development occurs, will likely be a weak sheared and lopsided, it is increasingly becoming apparent that the southwestery upper winds is going to conveyor belt tons of rich tropical moisture across the Eastern GOM and funnel it into portions of the Southeast U.S.

There potentially is going to be some heavy rainfall and potential flood possibilities early next week in areas from the Northeast Gulf region eastward to Florida and extending northward into MS, AL and GA.

[stormlover2013]

Land will shred it but it does look good

[wxman57]

It's Invest 99L now. Straight north to mid Gulf Coast. Even DSHP indicates no development.

[bamajammer4eva]

Yep Wunderground put it up

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 11m11 minutes ago Othón P. Blanco, Quintana Roo
Watching area near 19.0N 88.7W for tropical development [Invest 99L]: winds 15 mph moving N at 7 mph http://wxug.us/1qrvh #hurricane

[ronjon]

No 99L on storm2k's active storm board yet.

[MGC]

Looks to me that a weak circulation is starting to develop over the Yucatan or just offshore of Belize. Shear is way to strong to allow much of anything to get going in the GOM. Bunch a rain coming though.....MGC

[HeeBGBz]

That spot NNE of Belize is really trying to fire up this morning. It looks like it has potential.

[Ntxw]

That's certainly the area to watch, but it needs to stay down there. Shear overnight has increased with areas of 40 knots now kicking into the gulf. You can see the very strong shear lurking, starting to move into the BOC and then shift north/northeastward throughout today and the next several days to 50-60 knots+



The ULL has finally migrated to the Texas coast as expected, this is the cause of the shredder

[Sanibel]

Heads up. Has the look. Starting to curl.



50-60 knot shear? Nice while it lasted.

[Hurricaneman]

Is 99L