How does 2003 stack up numberwise (so far)?

[JetMaxx]

Here's a little research I did this morning:

Earliest Date for Storm #9 to develop:

AUG 20....1936
AUG 23....1995
AUG 24....1933
SEP 04....1990
SEP 06....2003 (Isabel)
SEP 10....1955
SEP 11....1945
SEP 11....1971
SEP 14....1916
SEP 14....2002
SEP 18....1989
SEP 20....1969
SEP 20....1998

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Earliest Date for Storm #10 to develop:

AUG 25....1995
AUG 26....1933
AUG 28....1936
SEP 17....1916
SEP 17....2002
SEP 21....1955
SEP 21....1971
SEP 21....1990
SEP 21....1998
SEP 25....2000
SEP 26....1966
SEP 27....1893
OCT 01....1944
OCT 01....1969
OCT 05....1958

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Years that saw Storm #9 by SEP 15 (and the total number of named storms that occurred that season):

1936 (8/20): 16 named storms
1995 (8/23): 19
1933 (8/24): 21
1990 (9/04): 14
2003 (9/06): still in progress
1955 (9/10): 12
1971 (9/11): 13
1945 (9/11): 11
2002 (9/14): 12
1916 (9/14): 14

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Years that saw Storm #10 by OCT 01 (and the total number of named storms that occurred that season):

1995 (8/25): 19
1933 (8/26): 21
1936 (8/28): 16
2002 (9/17): 12
1916 (9/17): 14
1998 (9/21): 14
1990 (9/21): 14
1971 (9/21): 13
1955 (9/25): 12
2000 (9/25): 14
1966 (9/26): 11
1893 (9/27): 12
1969 (10/1): 18
1944 (10/1): 11

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MOST NAMED STORMS BY SEPTEMBER 21st:

15 - 1933 & 1936
13 - 1995
12 - 2002
11 - 1916
11 - 1998
10 - 1955..1971 & 1990
9 - 2003 (so far)

Based on these historical records, it appears likely the 2003 season will end up with a total number of 14-16 named storms....or 5 to 7 more.

PW

[Stormsfury]

Good research (what's new? Perry always has excellent stats, research and analysis) ... I'm still not quite sold on extrapolated averages this season of 5-7 more potential storms, but who knows ... especially since 2002 abruptly ended after the 12th storm and 8th one to develop in September last year. However, at the same time, I don't exactly think this tropical season ends with Isabel either.

Down the stretch projection still would call for 4 more storms for my number of storms to verify. Hopefully, they won't be nothing more than storms to track harmlessly through the Atlantic.

SF

[Josephine96]

Good Numbers... I predicted 14 named storms at the beginning of the season.. I'm sticking to that prediction unless we have 14 named storms on November 1st lol.. Then I might bump it up to 15-16..