Models show NW GOM Low forming

[KatDaddy]

Now that Isabel has past the focus turns to the W GOM and E PAC. Several models showing a
low pressure area forming near S TX Coast and moving up the coast into LA by Monday night.
Looks like a potential flood threat rather than tropical development.

Here are the model runs I have found:

http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... es_h30.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... es_h36.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... es_h42.gif

http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... es_h24.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... es_h36.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... es_h48.gif

http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... 6_g211.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... 8_g211.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... 0_g211.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... y_g211.gif

Also concerned TS Marty in the E PAC will pump tremendous tropical moisture into TX and LA.

Hou-Gal AFD Excerpt

PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS REMAINING TIGHT ENOUGH MEETING SCA THRESHOLD FOR
20-60 NM REGION. WE SHALL CONTINUE W/CAUTION FOR 0-20 NM REGION.
WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT
BUT INCREASING SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE COAST STARTS TO INCREASE LIFT. WE SHALL STAY
CLOSER TO MESO-ETA W/PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES LATE
SUNDAY IN TO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWFA. WE SHALL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW OVER UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE EAST OF REGION BY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND.