Check this out folks....this is what I'm AFRAID of

[JetMaxx]

Look at this hurricane track chart of the 1938 hurricane known as the "Long Island Express". It occurred about this time of September, and was a similar intensity in the area north and NE of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

It LOOKED like it would be a direct hit on South Florida. In the days before satellite, recon, and supercomputers....everyone breathed a sigh of relief when it FINALLY began to turn....until it suddenly was caught by an approaching deep trough and shot northward just offshore the east coast like it was shot out of a cannon...and it didn't weaken much before smashing into Long Island and Southern New England on the afternoon of September 21st (the track data is totally bogus after recurvature. There were 180+ mph wind gusts recorded in Massachusetts)....it was a cat-4 as it passed east of North Carolina and a borderline cat-3/4 even in New England.

The fact it kept coming slowly west is WHY it ultimately roared northward so rapidly...without any warning whatsoever :o :o

This is the exact type of scenario I see developing with Isabel...it's coming farther west...will slow to a crawl, and when it finally turns, the trough will be so close it won't be moving 20 mph when it slams into Cape Hatteras, Dalmarva, Atlantic City, or possibly even New York City....it will be moving 40-50 mph (the 1938 hurricane was moving north @ 56 mph at time of impact on Long Island) -- meaning it won't be over the cooler sst's north of the Gulf Stream long enough to weaken before landfall (if it's Cape Hatteras landfall, sst's won't even matter...the Gulf Stream just to their south is 84°)..

This scenario that I theorize is developing is so dangerous it defy's description....because when the hurricane "takes off" toward the north or NNW at a fast forward speed, coastal residents won't have much time to evacuate.

[abajan]

Isabel must be the "Long Island Express" re-incarnated! The similarity in tracks is eerie. :o

[njbeachwx]

time will tell.... :o

[Stormsfury]

I don't see the 62 mph forward speed associated with the Long Island Express ... but yes, the concerns of a rapidly accelerating Isabel moving NNW DOES concern me a great deal and model guidance suggests that it is POSSIBLE.

SF

[Guest]

Certainly has my attention...................I may need to get on the road sooner because im headed to the DE coast where my family (Mother/Grandparents) is located to help get what they can out of thier house which if this cane does this i very seriously doubt that house will be there after Isabel. This is looking worse and worse..................I hope everyone else is getting prepared in those areas! Better safe then sorry.

[kenstorm]

concerns me here in ct! :o

[summerwx]

It didn't happen Jettmax. You were wrong for scaring people.

[Josephine96]

LOL He was probably warning people.. not scaring them...

[janswizard]

I don't think JetMaxx was scaring anyone - these were his thoughts and predictions based on information he studied on the system and existing weather patterns. Furthermore, this is the second post I've seen tonight calling him out for what he predicted. I thought that was one of the things this board was for - posting our predictions. No one has to be right 100% of the time. IMO, this is no reason to try to belittle anyone.

[CocoaBill]

janswizard, there has been at least three that I've seen now.... you have made a good point!

[janswizard]

I just hate it when people have to show their tails.

[abajan]

I don't think JetMaxx was scaring anyone - these were his thoughts and predictions based on information he studied on the system and existing weather patterns. Furthermore, this is the second post I've seen tonight calling him out for what he predicted. I thought that was one of the things this board was for - posting our predictions. No one has to be right 100% of the time. IMO, this is no reason to try to belittle anyone.

Agreed 100%.