Isabel Post Storm Reports Issued

[wxman57]

I notice a few of the NWS offices now have Isabel Post Storm Reports online:

From Wakefield, VA:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx_event ... l_2003.htm

From Newport/Morehead City:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/mhx/index.html

From Philadelphia:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/PSHPHI

Take a look at the reports. In particular, look at the sustained winds. Notice that with all those recording stations in Isabel's path, that very few anemometers recorded sustained hurricane-force winds. Certainly there were gusts well over 75 mph, but not sustained winds for the most part. Now I know that there was a tremendous amount of damage, and there probably were sustained winds in a small area up to minimal Cat 2 strength. And I certainly don't want to diminish the impact of this devastating storm on the residents of the east coast, as it truely was a disaster. But so far all data suggest that Isabel was a minimal hurricane or a strong TS for most residents in its path. The reason for this is that Isabel's wind field was quite asymmetrical at landfall.

Perhaps those of you who went through Isabel can now imagine what it would be like to go through a major Cat 3 or 4 hurricane. I doubt such a storm would leave much left of the Outer Banks besides open ocean.

[ncwx]

I am not a professional met, there is a lot of truth what you say. You are correct that we should be afraid of a Cat 3 4 or 5. I have survived Fran, Bertha, Floyd and numerous ice storms. They were all unpleasant and dangerous.

Your point is well taken, however a lot of the accurate data is missing.

1. Ocracoke, Hatteras and bouy 41001 is missing or in question
2. The seemingly reliable data from the Duck pier is over 80 mi. from where the eye crossed, AQK and MHX seem to have different data for Duck
3. Norfolk data was approximately 120 mi. from where the center crossed
4. The wind doesn't always blow at the reporting station 33 feet above the gound, in NC during Fran, we had numerous situations of winds making it to the ground. These winds caused major damage to certain areas and left others relatively untouched.

[wxman57]

I am not a professional met, there is a lot of truth what you say. You are correct that we should be afraid of a Cat 3 4 or 5. I have survived Fran, Bertha, Floyd and numerous ice storms. They were all unpleasant and dangerous.

Your point is well taken, however a lot of the accurate data is missing.

1. Ocracoke, Hatteras and bouy 41001 is missing or in question
2. The seemingly reliable data from the Duck pier is over 80 mi. from where the eye crossed, AQK and MHX seem to have different data for Duck
3. Norfolk data was approximately 120 mi. from where the center crossed
4. The wind doesn't always blow at the reporting station 33 feet above the gound, in NC during Fran, we had numerous situations of winds making it to the ground. These winds caused major damage to certain areas and left others relatively untouched.

Correct, ncwx, I agree, there is more data to come in. That's why I acknowledged that Isabel probably was a lower-end Cat 2 at landfall, even though the 3 post storm reports barely support Cat 1 wind. One thing I might point out is that the storm reports come from NWS centers that are responsible for very large areas, not just those cities listed as the source of the report. I.E., Norfolk data is not just for the city of Norfolk. I would disagree that the standard anemometer height is not representative of surface wind, as you mention in #4 above. Are you implying that winds below 33ft (10 m) were stronger than at 33 ft? Typically, winds in hurricanes increase just above ground-level. 33ft (10m) is chosen as to be just above very low-level turbulence.

In any case, my point is that all hurricanes need to be respected as very dangerous weather systems, no matter if they are Cat 1 or Cat 5. Even Cat 1 or Cat 2 winds can cause unbelievable damage. That's why you don't hang around on a barrier island or along the coast when a hurricane approaches. Besides, a Cat 1 12 hours from landfall could intensify very quickly before it hits, giving you no time to evacuate. So don't mess around with ANY hurricane. They're not something to play in (as we saw from TV reporters in NC).

[JtSmarts]

I certainly agree with you wmman57 that all hurricanes should be respected, most of the damaging storms of the last few years were "only" strong TS/Cat1/Cat2.

[Stephanie]

Thanks for providing the stats. I'm near Philadelphia and with the tree damage we saw just around where I would've sworn that the gusts were higher than what was posted (43 AT 347 AM SEPT 19). We were EXTREMELY lucky!

[ChaserUK]

Perhaps those of you who went through Isabel can now imagine what it would be like to go through a major Cat 3 or 4 hurricane. I doubt such a storm would leave much left of the Outer Banks besides open ocean.

I here you!! I will think twice before embarking on a trip for a Cat 4 or higher. Would still consider a Cat 3 but that is only because of what I learnt from Isabel.[/quote]

[Zanzie]

Thank you for the info. In our area (15 miles north of Phila), the rainfall of ~1 inch sounds about right, as does the timing of max wind (~3 am). I would have expected higher measured wind gusts, but things sound loud and scary at night!

We lost 3 trees - two uprooted and one adjacent weakened tree which was dropped by the tree service. A big factor in our tree uprootings was the saturated condition of the ground. In driving around the area, I've seen a lot of uprooted trees relative to the number of downed large limbs. Pre-existing soil conditions were a big factor here in PA. I'm very grateful Isabel didn't bring us heavy rains.

[JCT777]

I hear ya Zanzie. I agree that loose soil caused by all the wet weather prior to Isabel led to a lot of uprooted trees, in spite of the winds not gusting past 50 MPH throughout the Philadelphia area. And now with the 3 to 5 inches of rain we just received yesterday, this would be a VERY bad time for us to get another major wind storm! :o

[WEATHER53]

58 mph peak gust here in College Pk, Md at 1:20am Friday and the power went off and stayed off for 72.5 hours. After a lull around 9 pm on Thursday it got nasty again at 11pm and the winds became sustained at 40-45 with numerous gusts to 50, frightening for about an hour betwen 1-2am, then the winds relented. We almost made it through but the last hour took us out. By the way, 2.53" from Isabell but 2.79" for the extremely heavy downpours in early morning hours of Tuesday with a few sport just 5 miles away from me repotting over 4" in the Tuesday deluge. Some homes that made it through Isabel without power and without flooded basements did have flooded basement in the deluge with the power on, the ground was just so wet that the sump pumps could not keep up with it.