Western Carribbean

[Rainband]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
136 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2003

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CU FIELD ACROSS
THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 88D RETURNS ALREADY SHOW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...AND EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS INTERACT. GIVEN THIS WILL
ADVERTISE LOW END SCATTERED RANGE POPS ~30% FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION WINDS DOWN...EXPECT TO SEE SKIES SLOWLY
CLEAR OUT WITH SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM(THU-FRI)...LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
MODELS THIS AFTERNOON IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH/VORT LOBE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS WEAK INVERTED TYPE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE SERN
GULF/YUCATAN REGION. END RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF A WEAK EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY.

MODEL POPS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND
TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES PREFER TO STICK WITH
PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUE WITH 40% POPS NORTH AND 50% CENTRAL/SOUTH
ON THURSDAY...THEN 50% ACROSS THE BOARD ON FRIDAY AS UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE ENERGY GETS INTO THE ACT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND THROUGHOUT.

EXTENDED(SAT-WED)... UPPER TROF AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE DEEP SOUTH THEN FL
LATE SAT INTO SUN. VORT MAX OVER HEAD TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO KEEP AT LEAST 50 POPS SATURDAY ALL AREAS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT
LATE SUN TO BEGIN DRYING TREND. DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS MON TO KEEP N/NE FLOW IN
PLACE. WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLD SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN MOST ZONES LATE
IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

WITH ALL THAT SAID WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL FEATURE IN
WESTERN CARIB ATTM...AS SOME MODELS BRING TROPICAL WAVE/LOW THRU
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF SAT/SUN.

MARINE...WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BEYOND
THIS GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
LATE ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BRIDGING THIS FRONT
ON MONDAY. END RESULT WILL BE WINDS BACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW OR TROPICAL
WAVE ON TAIL END OF THIS FRONT OVER THE SERN GULF ON SUNDAY WHICH
INCREASES WINDS TOWARD SCEC LEVELS BY MONDAY. NOT GOING TO BITE OFF
ON THIS SCENARIO JUST YET...BUT WILL SHOW A SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS/
SEAS DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY #'S
BKV 070/090 069/088 2435
TPA 075/090 074/088 2535
SRQ 074/089 073/088 2535
GIF 074/090 073/089 2535
FMY 074/090 073/089 2535

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

JCM/RD

[Steve H.]

Here's todays HPC: Too early yet for them to commit; don't really agree that temps are too cool. They should come to Melbourne right now...89 degrees.... Another wait and see....nothing organized yet; but then again, they didn't expect it to til Friday. Cheers!!


WE ARE DOWNPLAYING THE SCENARIO OF YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYS
AFFECTING THE ERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN/NOGAPS MODELS. FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST WATCH THE BROAD
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION 300NM S OF JAMAICA AND SEE IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS. EVEN IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP THERE AND
DRIFT N...CHANCES ARE THAT IT WOULD SOON ENCOUNTER A LOT OF COOL
AIR OVER THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES/ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE NEW CANADIAN FROM 12Z/24 SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF THE
DEVELOPMENT IT SHOWED IN ITS PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. NEW 12Z/24 ETA AND
UKMET STILL HINT OF WEAK DEVELOPMENT IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUN DAY 3.