I must admit ... ominous look to this ....
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Stormsfury
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cycloneye
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Reminds me of Isabel in it's initial stages.
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Stormsfury
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That system in the Caribbean had a large outflow boundary bust out of the NWern flank of it earlier today. If we do get something out of the Caribbean, it won't be in the immediate short-term ... maybe 5-7 days out we might be talking about something there... maybe.
98L right now is the only game in town.
SF
98L right now is the only game in town.
SF
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WeatherEmperor
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wxman57
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4 Systems
I think we have 3 areas where we could possibly see TD/TS development in the next few days:
1. Frontal low near Bermuda -- Not purely tropical, but there appears to be an LLC. Good news is that it's already heading out to sea to the northeast. This could be the first system the NHC classifies, as it's closer to land.
2. Disturbance in eastern Atlantic. There appears to at least be a very sharp sfc trof and a lower to mid-level circulation. Conditions aloft look good for development. Could be a storm out there in a few days. Will it be a fish or will it affect the Caribbean and possibly the U.S.? Too early to say. Earlier model projections took it north of the Caribbean and out to sea. But I might remind everyone that early projections for Isabel had her going out to sea. However, one argument for a possible recurvature east of the U.S. is a stronger trof across the eastern U.S. in the long term - and some pretty cold fronts moving off the east coast.
3. NW Caribbean disturbance: Right now, it's just a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low to its southwest. Convection is decreasing this afternoon because the low is moving out of the way and crossing into the Pacific. This is actually a plus for possible development, as wind shear will be decreasing in its path in 48 hours. I wouldn't expect any significant development until maybe late Friday or Saturday, when it reaches the southern Gulf near western Cuba. But it's not going to be out there for that long. Once it hits the southern Gulf and heads north, it should encounter increasing westerly winds aloft, driving it NE-ENE across Florida. This has several ramifications.
A. Rapid movement means less time to develop before crossing the FL peninsula. I.E., we're probably looking at a TD or sheared/minimal TS and not a well-developed TS or hurricane impadting Florida.
B. Faster movement means less heavy rain potential
This looks to be one of those kind of systems (similar to 2000) that may be in the process of transforming to an ET low as it crosses Florida just ahead of the strong front on Sunday/Monday. Doesn't look like it'll be around past next Monday as a tropical system.
4. And, finally, the wave in the eastern Caribbean. This may be what SF is talking about as a possible development in the NW Caribbean in 5-7 days. Could be - we have to watch anything out there this time of year.
1. Frontal low near Bermuda -- Not purely tropical, but there appears to be an LLC. Good news is that it's already heading out to sea to the northeast. This could be the first system the NHC classifies, as it's closer to land.
2. Disturbance in eastern Atlantic. There appears to at least be a very sharp sfc trof and a lower to mid-level circulation. Conditions aloft look good for development. Could be a storm out there in a few days. Will it be a fish or will it affect the Caribbean and possibly the U.S.? Too early to say. Earlier model projections took it north of the Caribbean and out to sea. But I might remind everyone that early projections for Isabel had her going out to sea. However, one argument for a possible recurvature east of the U.S. is a stronger trof across the eastern U.S. in the long term - and some pretty cold fronts moving off the east coast.
3. NW Caribbean disturbance: Right now, it's just a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low to its southwest. Convection is decreasing this afternoon because the low is moving out of the way and crossing into the Pacific. This is actually a plus for possible development, as wind shear will be decreasing in its path in 48 hours. I wouldn't expect any significant development until maybe late Friday or Saturday, when it reaches the southern Gulf near western Cuba. But it's not going to be out there for that long. Once it hits the southern Gulf and heads north, it should encounter increasing westerly winds aloft, driving it NE-ENE across Florida. This has several ramifications.
A. Rapid movement means less time to develop before crossing the FL peninsula. I.E., we're probably looking at a TD or sheared/minimal TS and not a well-developed TS or hurricane impadting Florida.
B. Faster movement means less heavy rain potential
This looks to be one of those kind of systems (similar to 2000) that may be in the process of transforming to an ET low as it crosses Florida just ahead of the strong front on Sunday/Monday. Doesn't look like it'll be around past next Monday as a tropical system.
4. And, finally, the wave in the eastern Caribbean. This may be what SF is talking about as a possible development in the NW Caribbean in 5-7 days. Could be - we have to watch anything out there this time of year.
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dixiebreeze
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cycloneye
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Good analisis 57 and you know which I am closely following.
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Stormsfury
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dixiebreeze wrote:Well, it's already an Invest and the NHC doesn't do that lightly, I think. It appears to have a shot at development and that shear looks tonight like it's receding a bit already.
I noticed before last light visible imagery earlier today that there was a southerly low-level wind flow (low-level clouds), however, it's probably more in the low/mid levels.. Latest QuikScat imagery doesn't show any closed circ at this time. However, with that said ... if it can hold together tonight, I give 98L about a 40% chance of developing right now. The upper level wind environment looks like it's improving, but there is a lot of drier air out ahead of 98L.
Right now, 99L looks more like a frontal system (QuikScat). However, with that said, let that system sit a while and we just maybe talking about another depression (maybe subtropical to start) ... The EURO tonight on Day 3 closes a circ and moves it north towards the Canadian Maritimes before weakening and being absorbed in the large scale 500mb trough that's expected to bring a shot of unseasonably cool weather to the Eastern US. The 12z GFS has a similar picture with the overall setup.
The EURO is not very bullish with the current area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean now. I saw a strong outflow boundary earlier today emerge on the NWern flank. However, as wxman57 stated, conditions are progged to become a little more favorable. I also agree with the limited opportunity scenario as well for the system. That same large scale 500mb trough is progged to dig very far to the south and should act as a kicker for anything and may make a quick transition once it gets around Florida.
And lastly, wxman57 is right again when I was talking about the NW Caribbean 5-7 days from now being the Eastern Caribbean wave. The EURO tonight still holds on to that idea, as well as the ETAxx (which I don't ever use for tropical cyclone genesis) but the solution itself that it presents isn't as off the wall as usual that far out (for an ETA run grid in MR). Also there's some support with a couple of CMC Ensembles with that area later in the period.
Break time is over.
SF
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