Check Out Canadian Model!!

Steve H. · #1 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:41 am

This mornings CMC Global has an intense looking hurricane developing in the NW Caribbean looping through the Yucatan Channel and into St Pete/Tampa Fl area :o . Anyone know why the Other Tropical Genesis models haven't been updated at the PSU site?? If the Canadian is onto something, watch out eastern GOM!! It intensifies this system rapidly once in the Channel, and takes it up the eastern seaboard!! Let's see if other models show anything. I'll be checking here at work! Cheers!!

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:21 am

I was wondering the same about the PSU site. It really should be no big surprise the models "pick up" something in the GOM or Western Caribbean as they usually do when a cold front stalls in the GOM. The models have done this many many times before..even developing multiple systems from one front..only to end up with nothing more than rain...of which we don't need either right now. The western Caribbean and GOM are prime areas for this time of year so all eyes will be watching. It will be interesting to see when they add this to the TWO. The wave near Jamaica looks pretty active this morning...hmmmm

jfaul · #3 Postby **jfaul** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:22 am

any sytem that develops won't it the modeled target 5-7 days out. best place to be is in the bullsyes 7 days out on a model run. i wish sofla was in the bullseye as i know i would be safe.

Toni - 574 · #4 Postby **Toni - 574** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:25 am

Hey Steve, have both eyes on it now, sorta took me by suprise even though I knew that there was a possibility of something forming in that area in the near future. Guess I wasn't expecting it to look so aggressive. Well at least 1st aim is at central Florida, it can move along now

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:54 am

Claudette's early model runs before she was claudette were not off more than 100 miles :o Hope that was a fluke. I agree though west central Florida is overdue but I hope our luck still holds and Marshalls no vacancy sign is lighting up the sky!!! :wink:

ChaserUK · #6 Postby **ChaserUK** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:55 am

has someone got a link to this please? Seemed to have lost mine!!!!

Toni - 574 · #7 Postby **Toni - 574** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:10 am

Rainband wrote:Claudette's early model runs before she was claudette were not off more than 100 miles :o Hope that was a fluke. I agree though west central Florida is overdue but I hope our luck still holds and Marshalls no vacancy sign is lighting up the sky!!!

LOL, Check the plug-in Marshall and make sure the lights are on!! :idea:

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:21 am

Looking at the 10 day Canadian Global model run from meteocenter, the storm that it spins up hooks left into Maine past the period from the PSU site and gets wrapped into a larger extratropical system in Canada.

However, no other global supports the Canadian scenario. The Canadian Ensembles also offer little support, IMO, with the 00z Canadian run.

SF

Steve H. · #9 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:33 am

We'll need to wait for tonights model runs to see if this was anomalous, but I've been watching the pattern set up for development in the Yucatan Channel unfold during the past week. All models show a low there, but certainly not of the intensity of CMC. If anything develops there, it should head to the NNE given the fat that a 500mb trough will be digging down into the SE again over the weekend. Wonder if the 12ZGFS will get excited about it or not. Or will it suffer from convective feedback from the area in the western Caribbean. That's why we should wait for the 0Z 25 run. Cheers!!

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:40 am

Guess we are in wait and see mode once again :o :lol:

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 9:02 am

Steve H. wrote:We'll need to wait for tonights model runs to see if this was anomalous, but I've been watching the pattern set up for development in the Yucatan Channel unfold during the past week. All models show a low there, but certainly not of the intensity of CMC. If anything develops there, it should head to the NNE given the fat that a 500mb trough will be digging down into the SE again over the weekend. Wonder if the 12ZGFS will get excited about it or not. Or will it suffer from convective feedback from the area in the western Caribbean. That's why we should wait for the 0Z 25 run. Cheers!!

The EURO's idea is getting a lot of support from the Canadian Ensembles, and something else that caught my eye was the frontal lobe SW of Bermuda, the EURO wants to develop, at least, a weak low pressure in that area and keep it there the slowly move it N or NW. The GFS develops several waves of low pressure including a noreaster like scenario (like Steve H. noted) zipping NNE along the base of a strong (and maybe a little on the unseasonable side) 500mb trough-which is getting tremendous model support. NOGAPS kinda keeps the energy wavering around the Caribbean. Something interesting to note was the ETAxx, which I normally never use, may actually support the EURO to some degree, but a little further west in its idea of a system working its way into the GOM.

The tropics aren't so quiet anymore with several areas of interest. Don't forget about the wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands just yet either.

SF

#12 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 11:44 am

Guess we will just have to sit and wait for something to pop up. We have gotten quite accustomed to that anyways.

Colin · #13 Postby **Colin** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 2:14 pm

We do not need the rain here...and it better now ride up the Eastern Seaboard! :o We don't need another hit...wouldn't that be a record or something?

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:42 pm

Colin wrote:We do not need the rain here...and it better now ride up the Eastern Seaboard! :o We don't need another hit...wouldn't that be a record or something?

WHOA there.......Don't wish that rain on US now.........We just got clobbered with 2.3 inches from Izzy, then Monday night we got 3.5 inches MORE RAIN!!!

We are now at 48 inches so far this year.......44 inches is the yearly norm, and one of our local mets stated we now have a 20-INCH Surplus!!!! It's a crying shame we can't do that with our fiscal budget!!!!

Get OUTA here rain........We don't need NO MORE!!!!

ENOUGH is ENOUGH!!!!!!!!

-Jeb

Scott_inVA · #15 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:01 pm

ChaserUK wrote:has someone got a link to this please? Seemed to have lost mine!!!!

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html

Long (out to 144):
http://weather.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

#16 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:47 pm

Well, I don't see any hurricane indicated by the 00Z Canadian model, maybe a weak TS that moves across Florida Sunday and merges with a cold front, becoming ET as it moves up the east coast early next week. The 12Z Canadian shows a much weaker wave in the southeast Gulf at 12z Saturday, similar to tonight's ECMWF.

I don't think this system has much of a chance to develop into a significant storm - just not enough time and way too much shear as it interacts with a strong front dropping into Florida by Sunday. I'd say weak/sheared TS at best, with a rapid transformation to an ET (frontal) low early next week is most likely.

The main threat appears to be more rain for Florida.

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:52 pm

jfaul wrote:any sytem that develops won't it the modeled target 5-7 days out. best place to be is in the bullsyes 7 days out on a model run. i wish sofla was in the bullseye as i know i would be safe.

As I mentioned with Isabel... where models indicate a possible landfall at once time can change and always go back to the original forecast model guidance path.

Check Out Canadian Model!!

Check Out Canadian Model!!

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