Thought I would share the TWO from TPC for 11:30. Could be another long weekend for weary if it pans out. Hopefully, anything that does develop stays away.
ABNT20 KNHC 251508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2003
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEGAN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 15
MPH.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES
ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT35 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.
FORECASTER AVILA
Interesting TWO at 11:30
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tomboudreau
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Interesting TWO at 11:30
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Josephine96
We may have 16 developing way out in the Atlantic and 17 much closer to home.. Us Floridians may have to watch the system much closer to home to see if we get some trouble in the coming days... As I've stated.. it would be the 3rd system to directly impact Florida this year even though the 1st 2 were real whimps.. pre.. "erika" and Henri..
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Lowpressure
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Josephine96
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Josephine96
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Dean4Storms
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Looks to be evolving alot slower than what some models were indicating a few days ago. So this latest run by some models taking this disturbance in the Carib. slowly over the Yucatan and developing it in the BOC is becoming more likely at this point in my own analysis.
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Dean4Storms
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Hey Alicia, nothing even close to being a certainty. But the latest CMC and GFS runs depict a developing TC in the BOC from our Carib. disturbance come early-mid next week. Of course you probably know that development down there with the CONUS trough so active could mean that anything developing down there gets picked up and brought northward. Not saying this is a for sure thing by any means, but something interesting to watch. Click link and then click the forward tab.....
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation
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My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.