Well just about.... headers changed to "NONAME" look for upgrade at 5pm....
:? maybe a little early for an upgrade?? we'll see
Andre
TD 16 Official??
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TD 16 Official??
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cycloneye
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Andre but still they haved not updated the 12:00 position to the 18:00 one but shortly they will do that.
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cycloneye
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Nevermind Andre they just changed to 18:00 11.5n-37.7w 1008 mbs.
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wxman57
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16
If I were to attempt to climb into the heads of the NHC forecasters, this is what I think I would hear:
"Sure, it has a circulation, that's pretty evident now. But will the convection be able to maintain itself for the next 24 hours? It's way out there in the middle of nowhere, there's no rush to call it a depression only to have it possibly fall apart tomorrow. Let's wait on it today, see if the convection holds up overnight, then upgrade it at 10am CDT tomorrow...."
So I say they'll wait until tomorrow to upgrade it, mainly because they have the luxury of time. Of course, they've confounded me all year over there....
"Sure, it has a circulation, that's pretty evident now. But will the convection be able to maintain itself for the next 24 hours? It's way out there in the middle of nowhere, there's no rush to call it a depression only to have it possibly fall apart tomorrow. Let's wait on it today, see if the convection holds up overnight, then upgrade it at 10am CDT tomorrow...."
So I say they'll wait until tomorrow to upgrade it, mainly because they have the luxury of time. Of course, they've confounded me all year over there....
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wxman57
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Re: 16
wxman57 wrote:If I were to attempt to climb into the heads of the NHC forecasters, this is what I think I would hear:
"Sure, it has a circulation, that's pretty evident now. But will the convection be able to maintain itself for the next 24 hours? It's way out there in the middle of nowhere, there's no rush to call it a depression only to have it possibly fall apart tomorrow. Let's wait on it today, see if the convection holds up overnight, then upgrade it at 10am CDT tomorrow...."
So I say they'll wait until tomorrow to upgrade it, mainly because they have the luxury of time. Of course, they've confounded me all year over there....
Or, maybe it went something like this at the NHC....
"What the hell! Let's upgrade it now!"
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LOL!! They did it. Models really kick this out to sea with a trough/ULL sinking south. Think it MAY manage to stay south of it. Only potential land effects will be Bermuda with Juan right now. Maybe something in the NW Caribbean to watch though. Popcorn kernels popping right now around it, so the stage is set. I'm just wondering if it'll be a focal point f development with so many disturbed areas nearby (even the area in the NE GOM). This may play tug 'o war with energy and yield nothing significant. Then again, maybe not!
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