Model Verification for Isabel

[wxman57]

Some of you have been wondering which model did best with Isabel. Well, I have the answers right here:

ftp://140.208.1.2/pub/mb/al13/verification

ftp://140.208.1.2/pub/mb/al13/al13.gif

And the winners are (most accurate at 120hrs)...

1. GUNS -- average error 94 miles at 120hrs
2. GUNA -- average error 114.5 miles at 120hrs
3. NHC -- average error 137.6 miles at 120hrs
4. GFDL -- average error 153.7 miles at 120hrs
5. UKMET -- average error 154.3 miles at 120hrs

The GFS (AVN) was actually pretty good at 96 hours (about 150 miles off), but dropped out of the running at 120 hours with an average error of 202 miles.

And the "dogs" were:
1. CLIPER -- average error 580.1 miles at 120hrs
2. A98E -- average error 490.8 miles at 120hrs

Not surprising that the two climo-based models were pathetic. That's why you shouldn't use them for any forecasting.

Oh, and Fabian's verification is on that web site too:

ftp://140.208.1.2/pub/mb/al10/

[Aquawind]

Thank You wxman57

Dang Acronyms.. Would someone please enlighten me on the
GUNS
GUNA
NHC

It did some searches only to come up empty and I don't see them listed anywhere. :?


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/TampaBayWea ... Page.shtml

[wxman57]

You're not going to find muh on GUNA/GUNS online - they're special tropical ensemble models run by the NHC. These models are unavailable to the public, as far as I know. Oh, and "NHC" in the listing is the National Hurricane Center's forecast".

[Deenac813]

Thanks so much wxman.. that was just what I needed

[Aquawind]

I can't imagine why the best models would not be made available to the public...we do pay the bills. I figured the NHC was a forecast not a model, but had to ask.

Thanks Again

[Derecho]

You're not going to find muh on GUNA/GUNS online - they're special tropical ensemble models run by the NHC. These models are unavailable to the public, as far as I know. Oh, and "NHC" in the listing is the National Hurricane Center's forecast".

"Special?" Not really.

GUNS is a very simple average of the GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS.

GUNA is an average of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS.

ALL the COMPONENTS of these averages are avaliable to the public.

And the current Stormtrakker 6 Beta:

http://bellsouthpwp.net/w/x/wxpgmr/Stor ... esting.htm

Using the "consensus" feature allows a user to average a set of models by hand; I was essentially creating my own GUNA during Isabel.


GUNA or GUNS has pretty consistently been the best tropical track model the last several years, often by significant margins.

[Aquawind]

Thank You very much Derecho!! I am using stormtrakker 5..time to upgrade..

[NC George]

So that would make the GFDL the closest at 153 miles, and the UKMET right behind it at 154. Averages of different models aren't really seperate models, IMHO, unless they find a way to combine the data and results from both into one run, they are just averages.

Sounds like they should just stick with GUNS, and leave the GFS out of it, the GFS just made it wronger.