LLC may be forming between Honduras and the Caymans

[Vortex]

Approximate location is 17.4/83.5 at this time. The hi-resoloution infared imagery suggest that a low-level center may be trying to form in the aforementioned area. Reports from Honduras would also back this scenario as several obs have w/sw/nw winds. The upper level environment continues to improve. In the coming hours we'll have a better idea if indeed this is taking place. Overall organization is improving over the western carribean as the ULL moves west providing ventilation for this developing system.

[Josephine96]

That would be interesting.. It'd make 3 sytems around at the same time.. Oh the joys of the busy times of hurricane season lol

[wxman57]

It's nearly impossible to identify an LLC developing on low-resolution IR imagery (there is no high-res IR imagery). Lower-level clouds are difficult to see, as they're nearly the same temperature as the water. I'm not at the office where I can plot all the data on GARP, but the IR loop I'm looking at shows no evidence of anything but an upper-level low southwest of the convection. You have to be wary of land/sea-breeze effects in coastal areas, particularly with very light winds (under 15kts). Convection is very disorganized and not improving tonight. I doubt there's anything there but a tropical wave, yet.

[Derecho]

No circ at all on QS, pass was at 7:39PM Eastern. Doubt one's formed since then.

I see no west winds on Honduran coastal locations either.

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBds20.png

[JetMaxx]

If anything does develop, it will have to move and strengthen quickly to become a serious threat to Florida (which I don't see occurring). There is a deepening trough forecast across the eastern U.S. by Saturday night....that will usher the first real taste of Autumn into Georgia (lows near 50° here by early next week).

IMO a far more likely scenario is this Western Caribbean system being forced westward or even SW into the Bay of Campeche to dissapate over Mexico...trapped beneath the large and building ridge behind the frontal system.

[bahamaswx]

Yep... pretty much all the models forecast very strong ridging over the gulf. It would have a tough time even making it to Florida.

On the other hand, I wouldn't expect any formation until atleast tomorrow evening/night anyway.

[vbhoutex]

This system will definitely have to hurry and do something if it is to become a threat to FL, IMO. Perry I agree with your analysis ATT, but reserve the right to change my mind!!!

One of our local OCM's did show it as a low pressure area moving across N Central FL over the weekend, but that was straight off of a model and I'm sure there was no real analysis behind it. ATM it is way too disorganized to excite me.