Nothing changed overnight

[Aquawind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270912
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JUAN LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 1230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL AND
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF AT LEAST A CIRCULATION IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED EAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GEORGIA COAST ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT
... IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART




Tampa NWS Discussion




--EXTENDED (TUE-FRI)--LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. WILL
KEEP CURRENT EXTENDED SIMILAR WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. GFS PROG HAS FRONT TO STALL OVER S FL TUE THEN
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SE GULF AS SFC LOW FORMS ON FRONT AND
MOVES OVER S FL PENINSULA THRU MID WEEK. WANT TO SEE BETTER
CONSISTENCY BEFORE BUYING OFF ON THIS. WILL KEEP BEST
MOISTURE/INSTABILILITY AND POPS S. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.