11 P.M. DISC: LESS SHEAR = OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN....

[dixiebreeze]

over next couple of days. And track just a tad more to the right for Nick:

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 10


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 15, 2003



if anything...Nicholas looks a little less organized this evening...
with the deep convection looking a little strung out to the
southeast of the center. Microwave passes still show an elongated
circulation. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are unchanged
from 6 hours ago and the initial intensity estimate is unchanged as
well.
Recent microwave passes suggest that the current heading may be
starting to Bend a little to the right. A weak mid-level ridge lies
to the north-northwest of Nicholas...but this ridge may soon be
eroded by a mid/upper-level shortwave northeast of the Lesser
Antilles. This should allow a generally slow and northwestward
motion over the next few days. With such weak environmental
steering currents in a largely data-void region...it is not
surprising that there is a lot of scatter in the track guidance.
The simple-physics models...along with the UKMET...continue to
forecast a west-northwesterly track...while the GFS...GFDL...and
NOGAPS forecast a mostly northward track. Surprisingly...the
simpler models have been doing the better job so far...but with a
possible rightward Bend in the track beginning this may be about to
change. The official forecast essentially splits the difference
between the UKMET and GFS/GFDL solutions and is very close to the
previous advisory track.
There is a little less southwesterly shear now than there was 24
hours ago...and this trend should continue for the next couple of
days. Nicholas should therefore have an opportunity for some
strengthening. Increasing westerly shear after 72 hr should limit
intensification. The SHIPS guidance has been trending downward
over the past few runs and now calls for little intensification.
The GFDL still makes Nicholas a hurricane but it too is trending
downward. The official forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory and is closer to the GFDL solution.

Forecaster Franklin