Tropical MM5 Most Bizarre tonight.

[Stormsfury]

Tropical MM5 - through 120 hours

I like the overall depiction of the tanking NAO ...

Here's the most bizarre part ... Look as the next 5 days progged by the MM5 ... No less than 4 systems, one current and 3 potential systems and not of the 3 are the current invest ...

1) Current ... Nicholas continuing a very slow NW to N movement thru 5 days.
2) Another Low Pressure system off of Africa shooting northward along the coast.
3) Yet another low (the little swirl around 10ºN, 56ºW) pointed out by wxman57 earlier today in another thread with potential development SE of Puerto Rico and maintaining a least a low pressure structure.
4) The most ominous of all. A strong spinup in the Western Caribbean after 3 days and deepening quite significantly and moving ... nowhere to the end of the period.

So far, I'm seen no other model guidance to support the MM5's thinking in regards to the other 3 systems except the NOGAPS in the Western Caribbean. However, the MM5's handling of Nicholas may generally be the right idea. The EURO moves Nicholas very slowly through the period. Interestingly enough, it initialized the swirl along the long band at 10ºN, 56ºW as a 1012 mb low at 12z.

The Canadian Ensembles aren't lending any support to the Caribbean (unless it stays off the map the entire period) except for one ensemble member. The GFS Ensembles aren't lending any credence as well.

I posted this just because it LOOKED interesting. IMHO, it's not going to verify.

[rainstorm]

whoa!!

[Steve H.]

I really don't think the MM5 is that bizarre at all. The GFS is hinting at development just about where the NOGAPS is putting it, only not as robust. We'll see models trend this way. But the key question is does next wednesday's trough pull it north toward the SE US or does it pull a right and head across Cuba/Dominican Republic? Next week may start the last waltz for the season.

[Valkhorn]

I think it's reasonable to accept given how tanked the NAO is. If this were winter boy would it be cold in the east. Thankfully for those that hate the cold the NAO usually doesn't affect much in the way of arctic air this time of year.

[Aquawind]

Good eye SF
That model is hyperactive. :o

4 systems..nah... development in the Caribbean...yah..not far fetched..
3 monsters..nah...imho

[ColdFront77]

The MM5 model is picking up something. Far fetched or not, there is enough reason to follow the model guidance and the satellite images.

[Toni - 574]

Think some type of development is not out of the question. In fact sorta expect it before the season is offically over. How grand the finale will be is anyones guess at this point... as active as this season has been I just think that it would be a little odd not to end the season without some kind of caribbean or gulf development... still some time left guys!!

[Derek Ortt]

There is no chance of that verifying a ddefinately no need to watch anything more carefully than normal

[BEER980]

I wonder if Canada will see some good snow? With those two lows chasing eash other up the east coast and going back west into Northern Canada.

[ColdFront77]

There is no chance of that verifying a definately no need to watch anything more carefully than normal

That's true, Derek. I don't believe too many people are watching for any development more carefully than normal.

Observations are made of possible tropical development, so we continue to monitor the situation.