OBIWAN thou cometh w/the last gasp?

[DESTRUCTION5]

IS THE OBI WAN EFFECT GETTING READY TO CAUSE PROBLEMS? I think so. That effect, for you new readers, is something I have labeled when a non tropical system tears up a tropical system ( Darth Vader tearing up OBI WAN in Star Wars) but then the "force" re-appears when the energy and warmth from the Original system forces the system that destroyed it, to then become warm core itself. The new system that does it is Luke, and of course if successful it turns Darth ( the cold core system in the first place) to the other side. Though this happens quite often, the most famous, or infamous, example of it is the so called perfect storm.

The remnants of Nicholas are entrained into the elongated area of low pressure that is extending from south of Bermuda to northeast of Puerto Rico. The rapid development of the upper ridge near the southeast coast and the surface pressure rises around this system should prevent it from leaving and so a west to southwest move of the envelope of low pressure starts Friday.

The system will not be tropical at first, but has a good chance to become that, and perhaps beyond. The reasons are that in that part of the world, and the projected track is near or just south of Florida late Sunday and Monday and into the gulf, we have the water quite warm. In other words, its still summer. But an imbalance is created here by the build up pressures to the north because of the autumn season. The same ridge in summer would not have near the surface high developing. So one gets an enhanced east flow north of the low pressure which north of 25 north is a convergent wind and adds energy to the system. In addition the large elliptical shape of the system means it will draw more heat north into it. A large area of low pressure initially represents energy, that if concentrated can become quite formidable.

No one is saying, yet that is, this will be exactly like Kate in 1985 which hit 954 mb on Nov 19 or 20 in the southeast gulf that year. It is saying that the established extreme, and 3 weeks later, in a pattern very similar, means that this has potential to grow into a real menace if not for Florida ( remember Erika waited) then for the gulf. At the very least. the node of low pressure going by to the south of a building high will mean strong east winds develop across Florida with rough surf and beach erosion this weekend on the east coast beaches. The gut call is for the system to move at 15-20 mph Saturday into Monday, then slow with the final 200 to 300 miles being a slow painful challenging crawl next week into the central gulf. Then it will be a matter of how much things shift around and interact.

Most bullish on this is the UKMET. The Euro track is further south and across Cuba and the northeast tip of the Yucatan with a recurve further west. Suffice it to say a duck is on the pond in what is probably going to be another Pacific like elliptical hybridish look to development. Those of you that follow the tropical outlook know what I mean as I have pointed that out several times.

[stormchazer]

Your force is indeed strong! That was a great post!

[bocavice]

That was a great post. was that from joe B or destruction 5

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is the works of JB..Can't take credit...

[JCT777]

JB seems to have a good handle on this, IMO.

[Steve H.]

The big question is IMO, does the ridge build that quickly to the north to keep it in the SW Atlantic, or does it beeline north during the next 24 hours? If it stays in the SW Atlantic under the ridge, does it hit the east coast of Florida; go through the Strits into the GOM and head for Texas; does it go into the Yucatan; does it get into the GOM then stall waiting for steering currents; and finally does it develop at all. Finally, is this the western Caribbean development JB was speaking about? Is this completely independent from that. An interesting thing here is the developing circulation in the Central Caribbean south of the big islands. Anyone else see that this morning????

[Rainband]

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LATEST GFS/MRF RUNS SHOWS A TUTT TYPE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY...THEN THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. AT THE MOMENT THE GFS/MRF SOLUTIONS LOOK A
BIT OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SHOULD IT VERIFY WE WOULD SEE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. FOR NOW PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS DO
WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE CHANGING THE FORECAST TO MUCH...BUT I WILL
SHOW A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOW POP MENTION ~20%
FOR SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH READINGS CONTINUING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. Guess we shall see

[bocavice]

Wouldn't the front east of FL push whatever is out in the Atlantic to the north and then northeast

[cycloneye]

Well that front will lift northeast leaving behind that low in the western atlantic and a ridge will build behind the front pushing whatever is out there westward.But the question is if it will develop or not.

[bocavice]

thanks Luis I'm a newbie originally from Gopbi

[Rainband]

thanks Luis I'm a newbie originally from Gopbi

Welcome to the family

[Steve H.]

I find it absolutely and positively amazing that if the UKMET and several other models verify, JB will be pulling his hair out as this storm would approach the Florida east coast, go SW through the straits, and end up in the GOM at the same latitude it formed at, giving Florida a complete miss, and allowing JB's tropical forecast to bust!!! He can't get a Florida hit for nothin' The Florida bubble continues hehehee:roll:

[Rainband]

I find it absolutely and positively amazing that if the UKMET and several other models verify, JB will be pulling his hair out as this storm would approach the Florida east coast, go SW through the straits, and end up in the GOM at the same latitude it formed at, giving Florida a complete miss, and allowing JB's tropical forecast to bust!!! He can't get a Florida hit for nothin' The Florida bubble continues hehehee:roll:

Those are the same HONKERS that were showing development in the W carribbean..for soooooooo long. I wouldn't worry too much. BTW Good to see you Steve

[Steve H.]

Yeah I know. Good to be seen as they say. Hard to say where this would go anyhow. First we have to get a system. Then we see where it might go. BTW, the 18Z NCEP ETA shows a 1008 mb low east of Grand Bahama island at 84 hours. Let's see what the GFS brings.