Wild situation depicted by the globals

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 10:45 pm

The GFS, Canadian, UKMET, EURO, and the GFDL all indicate an energy split in the Central Atlantic with one vorticity center darting westward towards Southern Florida while the other develops in the East Central Atlantic. Only the NOGAPS now has a solution of a very deep EC Atlantic storm, while the others are weaker (as a result of the split). The EURO is furthest south keeping the center roughly around 25ºN from Day 5-7.

rainstorm · #2 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 11:05 pm

until something actually develops, the models will be unfocused

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 11:17 pm

rainstorm wrote:until something actually develops, the models will be unfocused

Ummm, the globals are pretty focused right now, generally offering identical solutions.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 11:28 pm

The forecast tracks are almost identical through the period...doesn't get much better than that.

stormchazer · #5 Postby **stormchazer** » Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:41 am

rainstorm wrote:until something actually develops, the models will be unfocused

They look identical or very close to me. Even in height of season with well developed systems it is rare to see that much solid model consistency. Intensity models are across the board but that is to be expected.

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:42 am

Scary when the models are in agreement..this early :eek:

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:42 am

Yes Johnnathan especially when there is nothing formed yet.

KatDaddy · #8 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:55 am

OTHER FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF PUERTO RICO WHICH IS
ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LOW IS
PART OF A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG 67W TO JUST W OF
BERMUDA. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME SORT OF
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT FROM THE
FORMATION OF A STRONG UPPER LOW SW OF BERMUDA ENHANCED BY A
PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY NEAR N CAROLINA. THIS AREA BEARS
WATCHING JUDGING FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS... EVEN IF THINGS ARE
RATHER QUIET AT THIS MOMENT

#9 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Oct 30, 2003 9:11 am

If it develops, it's a good bet that the pressure gradient north of the system could cause gale force winds all the way up the FL. east coast. This is something to watch for sure and the SST's are still very supportive of a hurricane. Not saying that this will become a hurricane but the possibilities are there for sure!

Wild situation depicted by the globals

Wild situation depicted by the globals

8:05AM TWD Excerpt

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