http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03103018
No clue from them on the tracks as they are split so we will have to wait for more runs from them.And also let's see what the globals say tonight including the euro.
18z tropical models suite for Nicholas
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cycloneye
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18z tropical models suite for Nicholas
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wxman57
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There is a "split" because the A98E is simply a climo model, and the LBAR appears to be useless for any system. BAMM and BAMD are consistent, but really aren't designed for use with subtropical stystems.
As for calling this "Nicholas" - Nicholas's weak low-level vortex was ripped apart and sent up the cold front yesterday. The puny swirl of clouds that was Nicholas was absorbed into the MUCH larger frontal low south of Bermuda. This is no longer Nicholas. It will be named Odette should it develop (at least it should be).
As for calling this "Nicholas" - Nicholas's weak low-level vortex was ripped apart and sent up the cold front yesterday. The puny swirl of clouds that was Nicholas was absorbed into the MUCH larger frontal low south of Bermuda. This is no longer Nicholas. It will be named Odette should it develop (at least it should be).
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I agree wxman. Out of many, One (our old US Motto) seems to apply.
Let me ask you this though. I checked the visible @ GOES and it clearly showed (at least) a couple of vortexes. The one I'm assuming they're tracking (due to south movement) has dropped below 30W in the last couple of hours. Is that just a random spinoff of the lowest pressure, a temporary vortex or what?
I'll see if I can pinpoint it on the latest photo and post the coordinates:
20:15UTC is kind of dark, but I've got 28.72/65.33 and another one at 27.87/64.46 and the other one I saw earlier (which now appears to be disappating) at 26.17/58.17.
Thanks,
Steve
Let me ask you this though. I checked the visible @ GOES and it clearly showed (at least) a couple of vortexes. The one I'm assuming they're tracking (due to south movement) has dropped below 30W in the last couple of hours. Is that just a random spinoff of the lowest pressure, a temporary vortex or what?
I'll see if I can pinpoint it on the latest photo and post the coordinates:
20:15UTC is kind of dark, but I've got 28.72/65.33 and another one at 27.87/64.46 and the other one I saw earlier (which now appears to be disappating) at 26.17/58.17.
Thanks,
Steve
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Both of those circulations are part of the broad circulation that I believe is just north of 30N, and is actually HUGE! You can see the convection still being torn off to the east, but I believe UL conditions will improve. If this were early late September/early October I'd say we have a monster developing. If conditions are right we still could have one, but i'm not going to start with that (yet) 
But that circulation is quite impressive 
But that circulation is quite impressive
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