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FROM ACCUWEATHER!! WOW

#1 Postby rainstorm » Wed Oct 29, 2003 6:01 pm

The remnants of what was once Nicholas have merged with an area of low pressure, located about 300 miles southwest of Bermuda. Given the very warm water and the tremendous ridge building over the western Atlantic, not only will this system move westward over the next few days, but strengthening is possible. We expect this system to reach the Florida Keys sometime Sunday. At the very least, it will cause some rough surf as well as showers and thunderstorms for South Florida. In the extreme case, we could end up with something similar to mid-November 1985 -- Kate came out of a similar situation. We are well past the peak of the hurricane season, but this system bears watching, given the current weather pattern. Elsewhere, we have a tropical wave along 32 west, south of 22 north; strong convection to the east of it. Another wave is in the Caribbean, along 80 west, south of 19 north.
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 7:00 pm

Southern, central and even northern Florida should monitor this system.

Miami's latitude is 25.8°N.
Orlando's latitude is 28.5°N.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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george_r_1961
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A longshot

#3 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 7:11 pm

Given the scenario in place now I would think some slow tropical development may indeed occur, but climatology is against it. I think the trough off the EC may lift out and leave that system either just sitting there or drifting slowly west. Could get interesting. We shall see.
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#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Oct 29, 2003 7:51 pm

Seems too wild, BUT --- it's been a busy and crazy season, so who knows? Can't say some development would surprise me.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Wed Oct 29, 2003 9:40 pm

That ridge is forecast to be rather strong, and in the position of a Bermuda high. Its strength will determine where our tropical system will go. Some model runs lift the ridge further to the north than others, so the next couple of days'model runs will tell the tale. BTW, I expect this system (whatever it is) to reach 85W. How it gets there is debatable.
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#6 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 9:41 pm

Steve I agree it will reach 85W..it will likely need to be that far west in order to develop.
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#7 Postby GulfBreezer » Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:23 am

WOW, this has indeed been a season of surprises and records.........let's see what the end of the 2003 season brings. We may be talking about this one for years to come..........
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ColdFront77

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 4:21 pm

Most if not the majority of tropical systems in November have made landfall along the Florida coast.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby stormchazer » Thu Oct 30, 2003 4:37 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Most if not the majority of tropical system in November have made landfall along the Florida coast.


That just means we are due for the unusual. :)
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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