If you build it the B!tch will come...

[DESTRUCTION5]

7. Gulf Tropical threat. The complex hybrid that will develop in the atlantic does pose a threat to south Florida as at least a gale and rain producer and for the gulf coast centered on 91 west, plus or minus 100 miles as, in the extreme event, a hurricane threat the middle of next week. The idea is the low pressure that is southwest of Bermuda, the entrained remnants of Nicholas, starts west southwest the next few days. The deep tropical flow into the system consistently entrains warmer air. I really have no changes from yesterday on this. The call is for rough surf, beach erosion and gales at least in gusts for the Keys and the Florida coast south of West Palm beach Sunday into Monday, with a storm with no name, a new name, or re-named between Key West and Havana Monday morning. The system will slow and turn to the northwest Tuesday and then crawl to the coast Wednesday and Thursday. The crucial question of how strong is a tough one, but past storms like this that have moved WEST through the straits, if organized and warm core, have deepened even at this time of the year. Remember extreme patterns and this is, with record warmth and cold possible due to the high amplitude the next 5 days across the nation, begat extreme events. The system if it can develop the warm core out of the hybrid, doesnt have a voice saying, heh you cant do that its November. All it knows is gimmee the inflow and heat, keep the waters warm beneath my feet, set me up with the right ventilation and its look out gulf coast part of the nation. I certainly can not be the extremity of 1985's Kate a name that should have been retired as that had to be one of the most impressive November weather events of all time a 954 hurricane around Nov 20 over the southeast gulf. The idea is the low level system here entrains heat and then it warms the center, becoming warm core within the overall cold low. If the cold low backs away, then it becomes truly warm core and the chance for that grows the further west it gets. The track is a problem since if it avoids Cuba it has a chance to crank. Yesterdays post is worth a read on this.

[Steve H.]

When he says it turns NW and crawls to the coast, which coast is he referring to??? If it is between the Keys and Havana, then crawls it ain't at the LA coast yet, though that's what many models are showing. Don't understand the JBspeak. Vague and murky

[JetMaxx]

The northern Gulf of Mexico is now well below 80°....I don't see a major hurricane, or even a 100 mph hurricane reaching any portion of the Gulf Coast the remainder of this hurricane season.

Kate was a very unusual hurricane....partially due to it's track (unusual for November), and it's intensity; but even Kate weakened dramatically once it passed into the NE GOM -- and struck the Florida panhandle as a weakening hurricane. I believe NHC was very generous in giving Kate a cat-2 rating at landfall....given the peak wind gusts in the Cape San Blas to Apalachicola area were barely 100 mph (sustained winds were less than 90 mph).

[stormchazer]

The northern Gulf of Mexico is now well below 80°....I don't see a major hurricane, or even a 100 mph hurricane reaching any portion of the Gulf Coast the remainder of this hurricane season.

Kate was a very unusual hurricane....partially due to it's track (unusual for November), and it's intensity; but even Kate weakened dramatically once it passed into the NE GOM -- and struck the Florida panhandle as a weakening hurricane. I believe NHC was very generous in giving Kate a cat-2 rating at landfall....given the peak wind gusts in the Cape San Blas to Apalachicola area were barely 100 mph (sustained winds were less than 90 mph).

http://www.navo.navy.mil/LIBRARY/Metoc/Caribbean/Caribbean%2bIslands/MCSST/K10/Sea%2bsurface%2btemperature/

Tempeture lows are from 78 to 80 degrees near the coast but well above 80 degrees through the rest of the GoM.

[JCT777]

This will definitely be an interesting system to follow. A November tropical system in the GOM does not happen too often, but we may see it next week.

[Josephine96]

Yes we may indeed see a November tropical system in the Gulf. The Gulf and the Caribbean are the main places to watch in November cause the Atlantic has just about been silenced.

[Steve]

Steve H:

>>Don't understand the JBspeak. Vague and murky

"Gulf Tropical threat. The complex hybrid that will develop in the atlantic does pose a threat to south Florida as at least a gale and rain producer and for the gulf coast centered on 91 west, plus or minus 100 miles as, in the extreme event, a hurricane threat the middle of next week."

How in the world is that vague and murky? That's the beginning of his post and is as crystal clear as a glass of Ketel 1 Vodka.

Personally, I would be shocked if a system was within 100 miles either side of 91W next week. It doesn't matter which side, I'd be getting tropical conditions of some sort or another. But that's not the way things are supposed to happen in November in the Gulf. But let me say this - Joe B doesn't usually call for something THIS FAR OUT (especially when nothing's developed yet) unless he's locked into it.

Again, I'd be amazed, but the bottom line is that he was not murky though the assumption is the transition would have to take place.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

No ... I have to agree with JetMaxx here.

Two different looks of the Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential.

Remember, this map here is based on 100% ideal conditions!


And the TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) - only high in one band (GOM - roughly the same locale where Opal dynamically increased back in 1995) - but in this case, not very impressive - in fact, the entire GOM outside of this one location has a LOW TCHP.

The depth of the 26C waters are most impressive in that same area for TCHP.






26C SST's

[stormchazer]

You obviously have found better data then I was looking at as it would support Jetmax's conclusions.

[JetMaxx]

Not only is the oceanic heat content against a significant landfalling GOM hurricane, but also climatology. There's never been a major hurricane to strike anywhere along the U.S. coastline later than October 25th....not even in the Florida Keys.

Kate would likely have been a cat-3 if it had tracked only 70-100 miles farther north and had struck the lower Keys....at landfall on the north coast of Cuba, sustained winds were 115 mph. After strengthening to 125 mph in the SE GOM....steady weakening commenced after passing over sst's below 26c....and were likely less than 100 mph at landfall only 36 hours later (peak gust recorded on land was 102 mph at the Cape San Blas c-man station near Port St Joe; gusts were estimated as high as 105-110 mph over a small area inland NW and N of Apalachicola).

There was a cat-2 hurricane that struck near Miami in early November of 1935. It came from the NE after originating near Bermuda, and was dubbed the "Yankee Hurricane". This hurricane was also likely a major hurricane as it crossed the northern Bahamas based on central pressure reports; but had weakened to a 95-100 mph cat-2 at landfall near Miami (where 94 mph sustained winds were recorded, with estimated gusts in the 120 mph range after the anemometer failed at 100 mph).

[Steve]

Hey Jet:

>in the extreme event, a hurricane threat the middle of next week

That was what Bastardi said according to the original cut & paste. You said:

>>There's never been a major hurricane to strike anywhere along the U.S. coastline later than October 25th...

Now I don't see where anyone said we'd have a major hurricane unless I missed something. But to me, a landfalling tropical storm (much less hurricane) would still be unprecedented anywhere west of Apalachacola.

So I gotta ask why the question about a major hurricane. It seems even the models aren't showing anything nearly that strong.

Thanks.

Steve

[opera ghost]

Even a TS hurts if it hits the coast right... I don't think anyone is claiming this will be a cat5 monster *grins*

[Steve]

Yeah, I understand that. But my question was why Jet was debunking a Major storm in this instance. I have trouble figuring even a hurricane (and indeed, Bastardi said hurricane in the extreme event). Hell, to be brutally honest, I'd be major league shocked if a Tropical Depression was on my doorstep in November for that matter.

So I'm just wondering what he was getting at.

Steve

[PTrackerLA]

MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL LOW (REMNANTS OF NICHOLAS) EAST OF FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND. SYSTEM MOVES WWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO THE
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST HPC PROGS TAKE THIS LOW TO THE UPPER TX
COAST 12Z WED...WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF TAKING IT INTO WRN GULF.
SUBSIDENCE AND EASTERLY FLOW AROUND LOW WILL FILTER DRIER AIR INTO
CWA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO FCST
TUE AFTN-THU GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW THIS WILL
DEVELOP AND WHETHER IT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA. ANY KIND OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING SE TX IN NOVEMBER IS PRETTY MUCH UNHEARD OF.

Houston mentions it in their discussion, this could be a really interesting week! I think a major hurricane landfall is out of the possibilty but a minimal hurricane could be possible and what bothers me is that it looks like it wants to make landfall in the northern gulf

[gboudx]

BR/NO discussion mentions this:

REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS
CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK TURN MORE WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY HEADING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE GULF
COAST BY WED AND THU.

[Steve H.]

Yeah Steve, I blew past JB's first sentence this morning when I wrote that Still think we have hurricane potential though. Even with the SSTs in the GOM, the gradiant will be extremely tight which may assist in development.

[Steve]

No problem. Hope I didn't come off strong or anything. It's just that it was the first thing he said. FWIW, I always read your posts anyway.

Steve

[JetMaxx]

Hey Jet:

>in the extreme event, a hurricane threat the middle of next week

That was what Bastardi said according to the original cut & paste. You said:

>>There's never been a major hurricane to strike anywhere along the U.S. coastline later than October 25th...

Now I don't see where anyone said we'd have a major hurricane unless I missed something. But to me, a landfalling tropical storm (much less hurricane) would still be unprecedented anywhere west of Apalachacola.

So I gotta ask why the question about a major hurricane. It seems even the models aren't showing anything nearly that strong.

Thanks.

Steve

I only mentioned it because JB mentioned Kate....which was a major hurricane in the southeastern GOM. If this system reached the northern Gulf Coast as even a cat-1 hurricane in November, it would be a very rare event.

[Steve]

Gotcha.

>>If this system reached the northern Gulf Coast as even a cat-1 hurricane in November, it would be a very rare event.

Yeah, I hear that. I saw the mention of Kate, but I took it in a different context. But yeah, very rare. I know it's got old in July when everyone was saying this was a weird season, but I guess anything is possible.

Steve